building a formula for glm() with 30,000 independent variables
Murray Jorgensen wrote:
You have not really given enough background to enable much help to be given.
In a way, that was intentional. I was hoping that my problem was merely a matter of proper R usage. But several of you have politely pointed out that my underlying thinking about the statistics itself is flawed. With 30,000 predictors and an order of magnitude *fewer* observations, I should expect to find a bogus but perfectly predictive model even if everything were random noise.
Knowledge of any structure on the predictors may suggest strategies for choosing representative predictors.
Understood. Since my statistics background is so weak, perhaps it would be wise at this point to explain what exactly I am trying to accomplish, and thereby better leverage this list's expertise. The "predictors" here are randomly sampled observations of the behavior of a running program. We decide in advance what things to observe. For example, we might decide to check whether a particular pointer on a particular line is null. So that would give us two counters: one telling us how many times it was seen to be null, and one telling us how many times it was seen to be not null. A similar sort of instrumentation would be to guess that a pair of program variables might related in some way. At random intervals we check their values and increment one of three counters depending on whether the first is less then, equal to, or greater than the second. So that would give us a trio of related predictors. We don't update these counters every time a given line of code executes, though: we randomly sample perhaps 1/100 or 1/1000. The samples are fair in the sense that each sampling opportunity is taken or skipped randomly and independently from each other opportunity. The "dependent outcome" is whether the program ultimately crashes or exits successfully. The goal is to identify those program behaviors which are strongly predictive of an eventual crash. For example, if the program has a single buffer overrun bug, we might discover that the "(index > limit) on line 196" counter is nonzero every time we crash, but is zero for most runs that do not crash. (Most, but not all. Sometimes you can overrun a buffer but not crash. "Getting lucky" is part of what we're trying to express in our model.) In my current experiment, I have about 10,000 pairs of program variables being compared with a "less", "equal", and "greater" counter for each. Thus, 30,000 predictors. Almost all of these should be irrelevant. And they certainly are not independent of each other. Looking along the other axis, I've got about 3300 distinct program runs, of which roughly one fifth crash. I have complete and perfect counter information for all of these runs, which I can easily postprocess to simulate sampled counters with any desired sampling density. I'm getting the distinct impression that a standard logistic regression with 30,000 predictors is *not* a practical approach. What should I be using instead? I'm frustrated by the fact that while the problem seems conceptually simple enough, I just don't have the statistics background required to know how to solve it correctly. If any of you have any suggestions, I certainly welcome them. Thank you, one and all. You've been quite generous with your advice already, and I certainly do appreciate it. -.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.- r-help mailing list -- Read http://www.ci.tuwien.ac.at/~hornik/R/R-FAQ.html Send "info", "help", or "[un]subscribe" (in the "body", not the subject !) To: r-help-request at stat.math.ethz.ch _._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._