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A general question about using Bayes' Theorem for calculating the probability of The End of Human Technological Civilisation

Actually the list is not moderated in the usual sense of the word. If 
you subscribe, your posts are not moderated. Only your first posting 
after subscription would be moderated, but for the purpose of preventing 
persons with obvious spamming goals.

And there are several different moderators. If I had seen that posting, 
I might have rejected it.