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Question about variable selection

Dear Wensui,

I don't think that it's possible to answer these questions mechanically,
especially if you're interested in the "true" relationship between the
response and a set of explanatory variables. If, however, you have a pure
prediction problem, then variable selection is a more reasonable approach,
as long as it's done carefully (in my opinion). 

I don't see how resampling and repeatedly examining the marginal
relationship between Y and an X is relevant to the question of whether there
is a partial relationship in the absence of a marginal relationship. (This
is close to what Wittgenstein once called buying two copies of the same
newspaper to see whether what was said in the first one is true.) After all,
as I said (and as you understand), the partial and marginal relationship can
differ -- so evidence about the marginal relationship is not necessarily
relevant to inference about the partial relationship. (As well,
bootstrapping a linear least-squares regression likely isn't going to give
you much additional information anyway.)

Regards,
 John

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John Fox
Department of Sociology
McMaster University
Hamilton, Ontario
Canada L8S 4M4
905-525-9140x23604
http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/jfox 
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