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unstable results of nlxb fit

John/Petr, I think there is an issue between a global optimum and local optima. I added a multistart loop around the code to see if I could find different solutions. Here is the code I added (I am not a great coder so please excuse any inefficiencies in this code segment):

# Multistart approach
NT <- 100
Results <- matrix(data=NA, nrow = NT, ncol=5, dimnames=list(NULL,c("SS", "A", "B", "a", "b")))
A1 <- runif(NT,0,100)
B1 <- runif(NT,0,100)
a1 <- runif(NT,0.0,0.1)
b1 <- runif(NT,0.0,0.1)
for (I in 1:NT) {
  if (A1[I] > B1[I]) { # Ensure that the A'a are always the lower so that nlxb() always converge to the same values
    A0 <- A1[I]
    a0 <- a1[I]
    A1[I] <- B1[I]
    a1[I] <- b1[I]
    B1[I] <- A0
    b1[I] <- a0
  }
  fit <- nlxb(tsmes ~ A*exp(a*plast) + B* exp(b*plast), data=temp,
              start=list(A=A1[I], B=B1[I], a=a1[I], b=b1[I]))
  ccc <- coef(fit)
  Results[I,1] <- fit$ssquares
  Results[I,2] <- ccc[1]
  Results[I,3] <- ccc[2]
  Results[I,4] <- ccc[3]
  Results[I,5] <- ccc[4]
}
Results

What I found is that the minimum SS generated at each trial had two distinct values, 417.8 and 3359.2. The A,B,a, and b values when the SS was 417.8 were all the same but I got different values for the case where the minimal SS was 3359.2. This indicates that the SS=417.8 may be the global minimum solution whereas the others are local optima. Here are the iteration results for a 100 trial multistart:

Results
           SS           A           B           a           b
  [1,] 3359.2  8.3546e+03  6.8321e+00   -1.988226  2.6139e-02
  [2,] 3359.2  8.2865e+03  6.8321e+00   -5.201735  2.6139e-02
  [3,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
  [4,] 3359.2  6.8321e+00  7.7888e+02    0.026139 -7.2812e-01
  [5,] 3359.2 -3.9020e+01  4.5852e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
  [6,] 3359.2  6.8321e+00  2.6310e+02    0.026139 -1.8116e+00
  [7,] 3359.2 -2.1509e+01  2.8341e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
  [8,] 3359.2 -3.8075e+01  4.4908e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
  [9,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [10,] 3359.2  1.2466e+04  6.8321e+00   -4.196000  2.6139e-02
 [11,]  417.8  9.7727e+00  3.9452e-13    0.021798  2.8023e-01
 [12,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [13,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [14,] 3359.2  3.8018e+02  6.8321e+00   -0.806414  2.6139e-02
 [15,] 3359.2 -3.1921e+00  1.0024e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [16,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [17,] 3359.2 -1.5938e+01  2.2770e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [18,] 3359.2 -3.1205e+01  3.8037e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [19,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [20,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [21,] 3359.2  8.6627e+03  6.8321e+00   -3.319778  2.6139e-02
 [22,] 3359.2  6.8321e+00  1.9318e+01    0.026139 -6.5773e-01
 [23,] 3359.2  6.2991e+01 -5.6159e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [24,] 3359.2  2.8865e-03  6.8321e+00   -1.576307  2.6139e-02
 [25,] 3359.2 -1.2496e+01  1.9328e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [26,] 3359.2 -5.9432e+00  1.2775e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [27,] 3359.2  1.6884e+02  6.8321e+00 -211.866423  2.6139e-02
 [28,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [29,] 3359.2  5.4972e+03  6.8321e+00   -3.432094  2.6139e-02
 [30,] 3359.2  6.8321e+00  1.4427e+03    0.026139 -4.2771e+02
 [31,]  417.8  9.7727e+00  3.9452e-13    0.021798  2.8023e-01
 [32,] 3359.2  3.5760e+01 -2.8928e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [33,] 3359.2  6.8321e+00 -4.0737e+02    0.026139 -6.7152e-01
 [34,] 3359.2  6.8321e+00  1.2638e+04    0.026139 -2.8070e+00
 [35,] 3359.2  1.1813e+01 -4.9807e+00    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [36,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [37,] 3359.2  6.8321e+00  1.2281e+03    0.026139 -3.0702e+02
 [38,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [39,] 3359.2 -2.6850e+01  3.3682e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [40,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [41,]  417.8  9.7727e+00  3.9452e-13    0.021798  2.8023e-01
 [42,] 3359.2 -2.3279e+01  3.0111e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [43,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [44,] 3359.2  6.8321e+00  1.4550e+03    0.026139 -4.0303e+00
 [45,] 3359.2 -1.1386e+01  1.8218e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [46,] 3359.2  8.8026e+02  6.8321e+00  -65.430608  2.6139e-02
 [47,] 3359.2 -8.1985e+00  1.5031e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [48,] 3359.2 -6.7767e+00  1.3609e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [49,] 3359.2 -1.1436e+01  1.8268e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [50,] 3359.2  1.0710e+04  6.8321e+00   -2.349659  2.6139e-02
 [51,]  417.8  9.7727e+00  3.9452e-13    0.021798  2.8023e-01
 [52,] 3359.2  6.8321e+00  7.1837e+02    0.026139 -7.4681e-01
 [53,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [54,]  417.8  9.7727e+00  3.9452e-13    0.021798  2.8023e-01
 [55,] 3359.2 -4.8774e+00  6.8321e+00  -16.405584  2.6139e-02
 [56,] 3359.2  1.2687e+03  6.8321e+00   -3.775998  2.6139e-02
 [57,] 3359.2  1.5529e+01 -8.6967e+00    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [58,] 3359.2 -1.0003e+01  1.6835e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [59,] 3359.2  6.8321e+00  3.9291e+02    0.026139 -4.1974e+02
 [60,] 3359.2 -2.1880e+01  2.8712e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [61,] 3359.2  4.1736e+03  6.8321e+00  -10.711457  2.6139e-02
 [62,] 3359.2 -3.3185e+01  4.0017e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [63,] 3359.2  7.6732e+02  6.8321e+00   -0.723977  2.6139e-02
 [64,] 3359.2  1.5334e+04  6.8321e+00  -52.573620  2.6139e-02
 [65,] 3359.2 -2.9556e+01  3.6388e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [66,] 3359.2 -1.0447e+00  7.8767e+00    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [67,] 3359.2  6.8321e+00  2.1471e+02    0.026139 -7.0582e+01
 [68,]  417.8  9.7727e+00  3.9452e-13    0.021798  2.8023e-01
 [69,] 3359.2 -2.2293e+01  2.9126e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [70,] 3359.2  6.2259e+02  6.8321e+00   -2.782527  2.6139e-02
 [71,] 3359.2 -1.4639e+01  2.1471e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [72,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [73,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [74,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [75,] 3359.2 -2.3449e+01  3.0281e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [76,] 3359.2 -2.5926e+01  6.8321e+00   -0.663656  2.6139e-02
 [77,]  417.8  9.7727e+00  3.9452e-13    0.021798  2.8023e-01
 [78,] 3359.2  6.8321e+00  6.9426e+02    0.026139 -1.9442e+00
 [79,] 3359.2  2.8684e+02  6.8321e+00   -0.854394  2.6139e-02
 [80,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [81,] 3359.2 -4.5066e+01  5.1899e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [82,] 3359.2  4.4678e+03  6.8321e+00   -2.109446  2.6139e-02
 [83,] 3359.2  3.1376e+03  6.8321e+00   -1.104803  2.6139e-02
 [84,] 3359.2  6.8321e+00  1.1167e+02    0.026139 -1.0280e+00
 [85,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [86,] 3359.2  5.3864e+02  6.8321e+00   -0.657971  2.6139e-02
 [87,] 3359.2  4.8227e+01  6.8321e+00   -2.304024  2.6139e-02
 [88,] 3359.2 -2.2048e+01  2.8880e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [89,]  417.8  3.9452e-13  9.7727e+00    0.280227  2.1798e-02
 [90,] 3359.2  6.8321e+00 -4.1689e+01    0.026139 -3.6049e+00
 [91,]  417.8  9.7727e+00  3.9452e-13    0.021798  2.8023e-01
 [92,] 3359.2 -4.1265e+01  4.8097e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [93,] 3359.2 -1.1565e+01  1.8397e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [94,] 3359.2  2.3698e+01 -1.6866e+01    0.026139  2.6139e-02
 [95,] 3359.2  4.4700e+03  6.8321e+00  -12.836180  2.6139e-02
 [96,] 3359.2  4.6052e+04  6.8321e+00   -7.158584  2.6139e-02
 [97,] 3359.2  2.5464e+03  6.8321e+00   -1.811626  2.6139e-02
 [98,] 3359.2  6.8321e+00  1.0338e+03    0.026139 -1.5365e+01
 [99,] 3359.2  1.3783e+01 -6.9507e+00    0.026139  2.6139e-02
[100,] 3359.2  6.8321e+00  6.7153e+02    0.026139 -1.5975e+03


Hope this helps,

Bernard McGarvey


Director, Fort Myers Beach Lions Foundation, Inc.


Retired (Lilly Engineering Fellow).