Hi all i have two data sets, spot and futures cash market prices. to estimate the minimum variance hedge ratio, i first had a glance on the correlation coefficient of relative price change (ln(St / St-1). surprizingly the value is just 0.2 compared to actual price correlation of 0.9. (i did regress the spot change on future change, co-effi is 0.3, and R2 is only 0.025 a) in such scenario can someone help me in estimating the ratio which are time varying. b) is there a way to define the function as the correlation will work at given level of basis (futures - spot). thank u for the help and co-operation rgds snvk
minimal hedge variance ratio
2 messages · Krishna Kumar, vincent@7d4.com
Krishna a ??crit :
i have two data sets, spot and futures cash market prices. to estimate the minimum variance hedge ratio, i first had a glance on the correlation coefficient of relative price change (ln(St / St-1). surprizingly the value is just 0.2 compared to actual price correlation of 0.9.
The correlation coefficient measures the strengh of *linear*
relation between 2 variables X and Y.
Thus when you replace X by X'=aX+b or Y by Y'=cY+d
(for instance use f = function(U) {return((U - mean(U))/sd(U));})
then you always have cor(X,Y)=cor(X',Y')=cor(X,Y')=cor(X',Y).
But when you use X'=f(X), Y'=g(Y) with f,g non linear functions
there is no reason to have cor(X',Y')=cor(X,Y).
... and f(X) = logreturn(X) is not really a linear transformation.
hih