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Rating competitors

5 messages · Jeff Newmiller, Spencer Graves, Charles C. Berry +1 more

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I am looking for hints on how to estimate ratings for competitors
in an ongoing pairwise competition using R... my particular area of
interest being the game of Go, but the idea of identifying ratings
(on a continuous scale) rather than relative rankings seems easily
generalized to other competitions so I thought someone might be
studying something related already.

I presume the rating of a competitor would be best modeled as a random
variate on the rating scale, and an encounter between two
competitors would be represented by a binary result.  Logistic regression
seems promising, but I am at a loss how to represent the model since
the pairings are arbitrary and not necessarily repeated often.

I have read about some approaches to estimating ratings for Go,
but they seem to involve optimization using assumed distributions
rather than model fitting which characterizes analysis in R.

Does any of this sound familiar? Suggestions for reading, anyone?
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Have you considered Bradley-Terry models?   RSiteSearch("bradley", 
"functions") just returned 31 hits for me. 

      Hope this helps. 
      Spencer Graves
Jeff Newmiller wrote:
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There is a substantial literature on 'statistics in sports' and pairwise 
comparisons are of obvious interest. Here is a starting point:

 	http://www.amstat.org/sections/sis/

You might browse the newsletters posted there.

You might enjoy:

Bridging Different Eras in Sports by Scott M. Berry, Patrick D. Larkey, C. 
Shane Reese; Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 94, 
1999

or

Baseball's All-Time Best Hitters: How Statistics Can Level the Playing 
Field by Michael J. Schell

 	http://press.princeton.edu/titles/6550.html
On Tue, 26 Dec 2006, Jeff Newmiller wrote:

            
Charles C. Berry                        (858) 534-2098
                                          Dept of Family/Preventive Medicine
E mailto:cberry at tajo.ucsd.edu	         UC San Diego
http://biostat.ucsd.edu/~cberry/         La Jolla, San Diego 92093-0717
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I would start with elimination-by-aspects models:
?eba
I would read the Tversky 1972 paper (cited on the help page for the  
eba() function), which is brilliant.
Jeff Newmiller wrote:

            
_____________________________
Professor Michael Kubovy
University of Virginia
Department of Psychology
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#
Spencer Graves wrote:
Thanks to everyone who responded... this was very helpful. I have a bit of
reading and investigation to do.

I think the Bradley-Terry model is going to be sufficient for my purposes,
if I can figure out how to model handicaps.  The eba library mentioned by
Kubovy seems more complex than what I need now, but it does look interesting
and if I can obtain a copy of the Tversky paper I will read it.  The SIS
link mentioned by Berry didn't seem to have much, but the article on
Bridging Different Eras in Sports is quite interesting.