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Time Series - ARIMA differencing problem

4 messages · thefurryblur, David Winsemius

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Hi,
I have been using this website (
http://www.stat.pitt.edu/stoffer/tsa2/Rissues.htm
http://www.stat.pitt.edu/stoffer/tsa2/Rissues.htm ) to help me to fit ARIMA
models to my data. At the moment I have two possible methods to use.

Method 1
If I use

arima(ts.data, order=c(1,2,0), xreg=1:length(ts.data))

then the wrong value for the intercept/mean is given (checked on SPSS and
Minitab) and also, this is produced

In sqrt(diag(x$var.coef)) : NaNs produced

Which means that the t-values (for the coefficients) are NaNs, which in turn
means that the p-values are NaNs.

Although, using this method gives the correct forecast (using predict) and
enables ts.plot to show the forecast and 95% CI's.

Method 2
If I use

diff(diff(ts.dat))

and then apply an ARIMA(1,0,0) to it, then this gives the correct
coefficients but the forecasts are wrong (ie they are flat and do not follow
the trend).

Could anyone think of a way to get both the coefficients AND the forecasts
correct?

Thanks.
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Uploaded the data and my comparison. Hopefully this will help illustrate and
solve the problem.
http://www.nabble.com/file/p22371555/data.csv data.csv 
http://www.nabble.com/file/p22371555/arima%2Bmethods.docx arima+methods.docx
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Your methods were sent in a docx file. I could be wrong, but it seems  
unlikely that very many people will bother to open such a file even if  
they do have an M$ product that will allow them to do so. My advice:  
First read the posting guide; then learn to sent plain text attachments.

This is sent offlist. I am not a TS guru or even a casual user. Don't  
send followups to my message.
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The docx file (which includes graphs) can be opened with either Microsoft
Office 2007 or if you have an earlier version: Google for the compatibility
pack ...OR use openoffice 3.
thefurryblur wrote: