Skip to content

[External] Amazing AI

2 messages · Barry Rowlingson, Spencer Graves

#
Next year one of my R programming assigments will read like this:

"Here is some R code written by a multi-million dollar AI system to
compute [something]. It doesn't work. Fix the bugs, then ask the AI to
write a letter to its creators apologising for how rubbish it is at
coding. Collect one million dollars."
On Sun, Dec 18, 2022 at 7:01 PM Boris Steipe <boris.steipe at utoronto.ca> wrote:
#
On 12/21/22 7:50 AM, Barry Rowlingson wrote:
You might want to be careful about such a promise.  Kahneman, Sibony, 
and Sunstein (2021) Noise:  A flaw in human judgment (Little, Brown and 
Company) claim that genuine expertise is acquired by learning from 
frequent, rapid, high-quality feedback on the quality of their 
decisions.  Few people have access to such feedback.  They call leaders 
in fields without such feedback "respect-experts", and note that 
respect-experts have only the illusion of competence.


	  1.  They further say that most respect-experts can be beaten by 
simple heuristics developed by intelligent lay people.


	  2.  Moreover, with a modest amount of data, ordinary least squares 
can beat most such heuristics.


	  3.  And if lots of data are available, AI can beat the simple 
heuristics.


	  They provide substantial quantities of research to support those 
claims.


	  Regarding your million dollars, it should not be hard to write an R 
interface to existing AI code cited by Kahneman et al.


	  Do you really want one of your students initiating a legal procedure 
to try to collect your million dollars?


	  A quarter century ago, my friend Soren Bisgaard told me about a 
colleague who had raved about AI.  Soren thought, "You prefer artificial 
intelligence to real intelligence?"


	  I perceive a role for AI in identifying subtle phenomena missed by 
more understandable modeling techniques.  Let's use the best 
understandable model, and apply AI to the residuals from that.  Then 
identify the variables that make the largest contributions to a useful 
AI model, and see if they can be added to the other model.


	  Spencer Graves