Skip to content

Please advise acf and pacf in order to determine order of Arima

1 message · Research student

Original
Research student
# 
I have data as below.Please let me know how the ACF and Pacf used to
determine the order od arima model.
Is  there any rules need to be followed to determine order.Please advise
Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec
2001 1.58 1.75 1.63 1.45 1.56 2.07 1.81 1.74 1.54 1.45 0.57 1.15
2002 1.50 1.66 1.34 1.67 1.81 1.60 1.70 1.87 1.47 1.59 0.74 0.82
2003 1.43 1.77 1.47 1.38 1.66 1.66 1.61 1.74 1.62 1.39 0.70 1.07
2004 1.48 1.48 1.50 1.27 1.56 1.61 1.55 1.69 1.49 1.32 0.53 1.03
2005 1.62 1.63 1.40 1.73 1.73 1.80 1.92 1.77 1.71 1.53 0.67 1.09
2006 1.71 1.90 1.68 1.46 1.86 1.85 1.88 1.86 1.62 1.45 0.67 1.18
2007 1.68 1.74 1.70 1.49 1.81 1.96 1.97 1.91 1.89 1.65 0.70 1.17
2008 1.76 1.78 1.53 1.90
acf(turkey.price.ts,plot=FALSE)

Autocorrelations of series ?turkey.price.ts?, by lag

0.0000 0.0833 0.1667 0.2500 0.3333 0.4167 0.5000 0.5833 0.6667 0.7500 0.8333 
 1.000  0.465 -0.019 -0.165 -0.145 -0.219 -0.215 -0.122 -0.136 -0.200 -0.016 
0.9167 1.0000 1.0833 1.1667 1.2500 1.3333 1.4167 1.5000 1.5833 
 0.368  0.723  0.403 -0.013 -0.187 -0.141 -0.180 -0.226 -0.130
Partial autocorrelations of series ?turkey.price.ts?, by lag

0.0833 0.1667 0.2500 0.3333 0.4167 0.5000 0.5833 0.6667 0.7500 0.8333 0.9167 
 0.465 -0.300 -0.020 -0.060 -0.218 -0.054 -0.061 -0.211 -0.180  0.098  0.299 
1.0000 1.0833 1.1667 1.2500 1.3333 1.4167 1.5000 1.5833 
 0.571 -0.122 -0.077 -0.075  0.119  0.064 -0.149 -0.061
Thanks in advance