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terminology for binomial regression

On 11-03-05 02:59 PM, Matthew Forister wrote:
In my opinion, it would be reasonable to use 'logistic regression' to
mean any GLM (generalized linear model) with a logit link, although very
most probably with the binomial family. My impression is that people
most commonly use 'logistic regression' to mean a GLM with
*binary* data and a logit link and 'binomial regression' to denote
non-binary data, but I don't have any references.
I would suggest Gelman and Hill for this, but these are statements of
changes on the logit scale ("log-odds" is a synonym).  Unfortunately,
the interpretation in terms of probability outcomes depends on the
baseline probability.  Rules of thumb are:

 (1) for small (near zero) baseline probabilities, the logistic
resembles an exponential and so the interpretation of logit-scale and
log-scale coefficients are similar, i.e. for small changes they can be
interpreted as proportional changes.  For your example above, this would
correspond to a PROPORTIONAL decline of approximately 14% per year for a
species that was already fairly rare.  (More precisely a decline of
(1-exp(-0.14))=0.13.)  (I want to emphasize that this is a change
relative to the original frequency of the species.)

 (2) for baseline probabilities near 0.5, the rule of thumb is that the
change in probability of occurrence is about r/4, so if your species
were originally present in about half of the samples a coefficient of
-0.14 would correspond to a decline of about 3.5% per year (this is
absolute rather than proportional).

 (3) For baseline probabilities near 1.0 (common species), #1 applies
but this time to the probability of non-occurrence. For example, suppose
we have a species that occurs 95% of the time.

## transform to logit scale
 qlogis(0.95)  ## 2.944, call it approx 2.95
 plogis(2.95-0.14) ## 0.943

## compare this with the change in the original probability of
## non-occurrence (0.05), which *increases* by 14%
1-0.05*1.14  ## 0.943