ugarchfit and arima seem contradictory?
1. Read the documentation of Box.test, and in particular on the option "fitdf" which needs to be adjusted when passing the residuals of an ARMA filtration. 2. rugarch uses: type = "Ljung-Box" 3. Observe email etiquette by using your name when posting (this is your third email without one). Alexios
On 11/02/12 14:18, ecsniffer?? wrote:
I use ARMAX(4,1) model to estimate the volatility and include interest rate r_t as the exogenous variable. I use the arima function and ugarchfit function from RUGARCH package, respectively. The results seem to contradict with each other.
If I use arima function,
my code is as follows,
data<-read.csv("...")
volatility<-ts(data$volatility);
rate<-ts(data$diff_rate);
result=arima(volatility,order=c(4,0,1),xreg=rate)
Box.test(result$residuals, lag =10, type = c("Box-Pierce", "Ljung-Box"))
The output is as follows,
Box-Pierce test
data: result$residuals
X-squared = 13.1749, df = 10, p-value = 0.2141
which means no correlation among the residuals.
However, if I use RUPACKAGE,
my code is as follows,
spec=ugarchspec(variance.model=list(model="sGARCH",garchOrder=c(1,1),submodel=NULL,
+ external.regressors=as.matrix(rate), variance.targeting = FALSE),
+ mean.model = list(armaOrder = c(4,1), include.mean = TRUE, garchInMean = FALSE,
+ inMeanType = 1, arfima = FALSE, external.regressors =as.matrix(rate)), distribution.model = "std",
+ start.pars = list(), fixed.pars = list())
fit=ugarchfit(spec,data=as.matrix(volatility))
fit
The output is as follows,
Q-Statistics on Standardized Residuals
------------------------------------
statistic p-value
Lag10 15.76 0.0075508
Lag15 21.98 0.0152135
Lag20 42.29 0.0002031
H0 : No serial correlation
which means there exisits correlation among the residuals.
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