Non-gaussian (L-stable) Garch innovations
Yes, you are wrong. Stable distributions DO have a constant variance: infinity. Pat
Jos? Augusto M. de Andrade Junior wrote:
Hi Patrick,
Thanks for the explanation.
I want to discuss the infinite variance of stable distributions
(except normal). I understand that infinite variance means only that
this distributions does not have a constant variance, that the
integral does not converge to a finite constant value.
When someone uses GARCH to model the variance he is indeed recogning
the same fact: the varince is not constant and should not converge, as
with stable distributions also occur.
Am i wrong?
2007/12/24, Patrick Burns <patrick at burns-stat.com
<mailto:patrick at burns-stat.com>>:
Given the model parameters and the starting volatility state,
the procedure (which you can use a 'for' loop to do) is:
* select the next random innovation.
* multiply by the volatility at that time point to get the simulated
return for that period.
* use the return to get the next period's variance using the garch
equation.
So there are two series that are being produced: the return
series and the variance series.
I'm not exactly objecting, but I hope you realize that garch models
variances while stable distributions (except the Gaussian) have
infinite
variance. Hence a garch model with a stable distribution is at least
a bit nonsensical.
Patrick Burns
patrick at burns-stat.com <mailto:patrick at burns-stat.com>
+44 (0)20 8525 0696
http://www.burns-stat.com
(home of S Poetry and "A Guide for the Unwilling S User")
Jos? Augusto M. de Andrade Junior wrote:
>Hi,
>
>Could someone give an example on how to simulate paths (forecast)
of a Garch
>process with Levy stable innovations (by using rstable random
deviates, for
>example)?
>
>Thanks in advance.
>
>Jos? Augusto M de Andrade Jr
>
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>
>
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