Error found - [Perfect out-of-sample-fit in a model containing a lagged dependent variable?]
Hi there! Thanks for helping! Patrick was right: I predicted the future by knowing the future. The lag-operator is not applied to the model-data's dataframe for reasons I'll find out. In effect the model is not Y ~ lag(Y) + lag(X1) + lag(X2) but Y ~ Y + lag(X1) + lag(X2)... Thanks again + good night: Gero