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Riskmetrics volatility and correlation estimation

Brian,

Thanks for the suggestions and tips. Indeed, after nabbling away in the archives, I found a Zivot statement to the effect that EWMA (function available in fMultivar) on squared returns is equivalent to RiskMetrics vol. No equivalent methodology as far as I can see for correlations, so I thought I'd post a query before attempting to implement it myself.

As for RiskMetrics, I've seen the following paper that discusses why RiskMetrics seems to work reasonably well in practise even if it is mis-specified for the data (algorithms given herein):

http://www.colbud.hu/pdf/Kondor/riskm.pdf

The idea is that for the short-horizon, 95%-confidence level sort of VaR computation, even non-normal distributions have quantiles close to the normal one, so RiskMetrics works okay; but will fail to do so for longer horizons and/or 99%-ile queries.

Engle's DCC paper: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~rengle/dccfinal.pdf shows that RiskMetrics methodology outperforms the rolling technique in estimating and forecasting correlation, even if not always so well as dynamic conditional correlations (which I don't think is available in R either).

Thanks,

Murali
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