Hi, Yohan:
I want to thank you again for working to improve 'garchFit' and
the documentation.
I wonder if you have time to also improve the documentation for
predict.garchFit', including the following example:
x <- garchSim()
fit <- garchFit(~arma(1,0)+garch(1,1), data=x)
predict(fit)
Secondarily, I get error messages from garch(1, 0) and garch(0,
1):
fit01 <- garchFit(~garch(0,1), data=x)
Error in .garchInitParameters(formula.mean = formula.mean, formula.var
= formula.var, :
object "alpha" not found
fit10 <- garchFit(~garch(1,0), data=x)
Error in sum(beta) : invalid 'type' (closure) of argument
Best Wishes,
Spencer
babel at centrum.sk wrote:
Hello
I want to predict the future values of time series with Garch
When I specified my model like this:
library(fGarch)
ret <- diff(log(x))*100
fit = garchFit(~arma(1,0,0)+garch(1, 1), data =ret)
predict(fit, n.ahead = 10)
meanForecast meanError standardDeviation
1 0.01371299 0.03086350 0.03305819
2 0.01211893 0.03094519 0.03350248
....................................................................................
I know that if I use fit = garchFit(~garch(1, 1), data =ret) I got constant mean, so trherefore I include amra term to move with mean
Iam not sure what values are hiding in this output. 1. Does
menForecast hold my future predicted values?
2.Or I am able to just compute the confidence intervals for my prediction like meanForecast +-2*standardDeviation ??
3Or I need to compute the future values like yt=meanForecast+meanError*sqrt(standardDeviation) ???
My return looks like standard return series with plus and minus
values, [748,] 0.008184311 [749,] 0.024548914 [750,]
-0.008182302
so I hope I would get similar prediction to this return, not just a postive mean constant.Sorry, I know that Garch models are for volatility modelling, but I still doesnt find how to use that volatility for forecasting future values. Short example with 5 step ahead prediction will surely help.
Thank you