Forcasting VAR/VEC
I tied to post it through Nabble, however it perhaps failed........ Here is my query. Your help will be highly appreciated.
I found a direct problem while implementing predict method. To use that, I need to give values for argument "object":
object: An object of class ??varest??; generated by ?VAR()?, or an
object of class ??vec2var??; generated by ?vec2var()?.
Here what I have I the estimated coefficients and last few values (required for prediction). Given those, how can I construct object of that class?
For example, I have VAR[2] model with estimated coefficients:
A1 <- t(matrix(c(-0.9444135, 0.5289205, 1.54338344, -1.2059849, 0.08658383, -0.7626375, 0.5384060, 1.34211012, -0.1540462, 0.07684465,
-1.5000912, 0.5975748, 2.08629175, -1.3629879, 0.16405863, 0.5622497, -0.5749668, -0.01207330, 1.6547463, -0.37280903, -1.1190102,
0.4834678, 1.04152221, -0.5084529, 0.91748918), 5))
A2 <- t(matrix(c(-0.5281084, 0.6750694, -0.00700632, 0.5744008, -0.540538174, -0.5115759, 0.6663074, -0.03690401, 0.1015040,
-0.483984397, -0.6669159, 0.7810531, -0.08478713, 0.2837110, -0.634807434, 0.2474859, -0.2126529, -0.04611398, -0.2851814, -0.003198122,
0.1136257, -0.4070806, -0.15362813, 0.1043871, -0.570401589), 5))
## and deterministic terms with monthly seasonal dummy (11 dummy variables + constant):
Mu <- t(matrix(c(0.01971314683, 7.392074e-05, 0.06745512042, 0.03066764063, -0.05716243051, -0.01666261294, -0.02648375478, -0.07739940822,
-0.08537205872, -0.03454705454, 0.01026347102, 3.93408495893, 0.01124435027, 0.00826573416, 0.07232184812, 0.02643898799, -0.02290620244,
0.00631679187, -0.02120713774, -0.06034222549, -0.06737971493, -0.02466344307, 0.01574220616, 3.67816873865, 0.01817359276, 0.00511780538,
0.06717006338, 0.06206760303, -0.04353428003, -0.03033956305, -0.00535023233, -0.06992876937, -0.10020345332, -0.04323120694, 0.00399287988,
3.01849213684,-0.00696500762, 0.00784220761, 0.00337317617, -0.00771413903, 0.03016416594, 0.02404299199, 0.00752992866, 0.01211247641,
0.01442465011, 0.00162618787, 0.00646325736, 0.18377741575,0.06172376263, 0.03093119587, 0.00519357485, -0.00720735363, -0.02268228948,
-0.03428031321, 0.01599783772, -0.01470977952, -0.00498472297, -0.03734476303, -0.03712904004, 2.95905626288), ncol=5))
## and last 4 values of TS
YY <- t(matrix(c(-0.55367226, 3.276980, -0.57634682, 3.827854, 4.248918, -0.57806007, 3.254492, -0.61281320, 3.835869, 4.280090, -0.51697066,
3.300236, -0.55756556, 3.815981, 4.274613, -0.47619582, 3.320164, -0.48689008, 3.793915, 4.216955), 5))
Given those information, how I can predict values for next 2 steps?
Thanks,
--- On Mon, 12/13/10, Pfaff, Bernhard Dr. <Bernhard_Pfaff at fra.invesco.com> wrote:
From: Pfaff, Bernhard Dr. <Bernhard_Pfaff at fra.invesco.com> Subject: AW: [R-SIG-Finance] Forcasting VAR/VEC To: "Megh" <megh700004 at yahoo.com>, r-sig-finance at stat.math.ethz.ch Date: Monday, December 13, 2010, 2:19 PM ?vars::predict
-----Urspr?ngliche Nachricht----- Von: r-sig-finance-bounces at r-project.org
[mailto:r-sig-finance-bounces at r-project.org]
Im Auftrag von Megh
Gesendet: Montag, 13. Dezember 2010 07:57 An: r-sig-finance at stat.math.ethz.ch Betreff: [R-SIG-Finance] Forcasting VAR/VEC Hi dears, I am looking for some function to predict
through
horizon "h", say, given the corefficients of a VAR/VEC
model.
I have moderately gone through packages "urca" &
"vars" but
did not find any significant:
ls("package:vars")
? [1] "A"? ? ? ? ? ?
? "Acoef"? ? ? ? ? "arch"? ? ? ? ???
"arch.test"? ? ? "B"? ?
? ? ? ???
"Bcoef"? ? ? ? ? "BQ"?
? ? ? ? ???"causality"? ???
? [9] "fanchart"? ?
???"fevd"? ? ? ? ???"irf"? ? ? ? ? ?
"normality"? ??? "normality.test" "Phi"? ? ? ?
? ? "Psi"? ? ? ? ? ? "restrict"? ? ?
[17] "roots"? ? ? ? ?
"serial"? ? ? ???"serial.test"? ?
"stability"? ??? "SVAR"? ? ? ?
???"SVEC"? ? ? ? ???"VAR"? ? ? ? ? ? "VARselect"? ???
[25] "vec2var"? ? ???
ls("package:urca")
? [1] "ablrtest"? ? ?
"alphaols"? ? ? "alrtest"? ? ???"bh5lrtest"? ?
"bh6lrtest"? ???"blrtest"?
? ???"ca.jo"? ? ? ???"ca.po"? ? ? ?
? [9] "cajolst"? ?
???"cajools"? ? ???"cajorls"? ? ???"lttest"
? ? ? ? "plot"? ? ?
???
"plotres"? ?
???"punitroot"? ???"qunitroot"? ?
[17] "summary"? ?
???"unitrootTable" "ur.df"? ? ? ???"ur.ers"? ? ???
"ur.kpss"? ? ???"ur.pp"?
? ? ???"ur.sp"? ? ? ???"ur.za"? ? ???
Can somebofy help in finding any relevant function for
prediction?
Thanks, -- View this message in context: http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/Forcasting-VAR-VEC-tp3084994p308
4994.html
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