Message-ID: <b2cf0d0e3de6575ee9c974d81fa25e01@stevens.edu>
Date: 2015-04-05T00:31:22Z
From: Alec Schmidt
Subject: auto.arima
I have a sample X with 2600 points and 18 external regressors (dummy
variables). X is integrated according to KPSS test: auto.arima() gives
(2,1,2) model with a few statistically significant coeff. for dummies.
Then I run auto.arima for Y=diff(X) and... get (6,0,6) model with very
different coeff for dummies. Shouldn't I get (2,0,2) model for Y or at
least similar coeff for dummies? Also, arima(2,0,2) for Y is very
different from (2,1,2) model for X. Which model should I believe?
BTW, auto.arima with ADF (rather than KPSS) for X gives (2,0,3) model
with ar1=1.8346 and ar2=-0.8351 but its coeff for external regressors
are very close to those for (2,1,2) -and I'm interested primarily in
them. Still such uncertainty in arma coeff troubles me and I'll greatly
appreciate your comments.
Thanks! Alec