LPPL model for bubble burst forcasting
Prof. Sornette has spent years forcasting bubble burst with "log-periodic power law". The latest paper gives "a self-consistent model for explosive financial bubbles, which combines a mean-reverting volatility process and a stochastic conditional return which reflects nonlinear positive feedbacks and continuous updates of the investors' beliefs and sentiments." And his latest predicting is the burst of Chinese equity bubble at the end of July. http://arxiv.org/abs/0907.1827 While waiting to see the result, I wonder whether it is possible to replicate the forcast with R. The model is in the page 10 of the "A Consistent Model of `Explosive' Financial Bubbles With Mean-Reversing Residuals", http://arxiv.org/abs/0905.0128 . The output chart is in the page 3 of "The Chinese Equity Bubble: Ready to Burst", http://arxiv.org/abs/0907.1827 . I guess the authors of the latter paper use the same model as described in the first paper. Because statistics is still challenging for me though I could use R for basic data manipulations, I wonder which package or function would be necessary to implement the model in the paper. The model seems more complicated than the models in the R tutorials for me. By the way, the author of the paper used Python and the codes are private. Any suggestion would be highly appreciated. Wind