Hi, first of all I would like to thanks for the rugarch package. it is really useful and a very nice package. I am investigating the effect of external variables on conditional variance models forecasts. more specifically, I am would like to check if the addition of implied volatility and realized variance as external regressors on a GJR (1,1) model somehow enhance the daily volatility forecasts of it. Looking for a tool to help modelling it I found the rugarch package, and started looking into it. In fact, at this point, I believe I have a very basic question. but did not find an answer on previous posts or in the package documentation. Should I inform the external regressors matrix in model spec already lagged or not? I imagine, yes, since I did not find in any place where specify the lags for those regressors, but would like to confirm. In case affirmative, If I want to use a same variable with different lags I need to inform it multiple times, obviously with different lags, in external.regressors matrix, correct? My apologies in advance if it is explained somewhere, but as I explained, i search without much success.. Thanks in advance for any help with that, Assis.
Adding external regressors on conditional variance model
4 messages · Assis Duraes, Alexios Ghalanos
Hi, The answer is yes and yes. Add variable(s) lagged. Best, Alexios
On 20/08/2015 14:57, Assis Duraes wrote:
Hi, first of all I would like to thanks for the rugarch package. it is really useful and a very nice package. I am investigating the effect of external variables on conditional variance models forecasts. more specifically, I am would like to check if the addition of implied volatility and realized variance as external regressors on a GJR (1,1) model somehow enhance the daily volatility forecasts of it. Looking for a tool to help modelling it I found the rugarch package, and started looking into it. In fact, at this point, I believe I have a very basic question. but did not find an answer on previous posts or in the package documentation. Should I inform the external regressors matrix in model spec already lagged or not? I imagine, yes, since I did not find in any place where specify the lags for those regressors, but would like to confirm. In case affirmative, If I want to use a same variable with different lags I need to inform it multiple times, obviously with different lags, in external.regressors matrix, correct? My apologies in advance if it is explained somewhere, but as I explained, i search without much success.. Thanks in advance for any help with that, Assis. [[alternative HTML version deleted]]
_______________________________________________ R-SIG-Finance at r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-sig-finance -- Subscriber-posting only. If you want to post, subscribe first. -- Also note that this is not the r-help list where general R questions should go.
Thank you very much for your prompt answer and help, Alexios. I am running now some models and found some results that are puzzling me.
From another thread I saw one recommendation that we should "(...) pass
values in the external regressor which are close in scale to the variance equation", what makes sense to me... However, I noticed that when I define the external regressors with values close to the return series, the coefficients calculated for the external regressors are non-significant, while I have a strong hypothesis that those should be relevant in the process. Nevertheless, I noticed that when scaling to an annual basis the external regressor coefficients becomes significant... Attached follow a sample code (sample_gjr_extregressor.R) and simplified database (data.txt) with daily returns (r) and lagged realized variance (lag_extreg) I am using as inputs for the models. There are three models as below: Model1: Standard GJR Model2: GJR with lagged daily realized variance Model3: GJR with lagged realized variance annualized (scaled by 252) The table below summarizes the results found. model omega alpha1 beta1 gamma1 delta1 p-val_omega p-val_alpha1 p-val_beta1 p-val_gamma1 p-val_delta1 LL For_01d Model1 0.011449 0.131705 0.89924 -0.08386 NA 0.001217 0.000000 0.000000 0.000012 0.000000 -2033.96 0.800619 Model2 0.011449 0.131705 0.899244 -0.08387 1.23E-08 0.002944 0.000000 0.000000 0.000012 0.999999 -2033.96 0.800635 Model3 0.004839 0.066382 0.69109 -0.08387 0.001161 0.633308 0.037429 0.000000 0.010968 0.000451 -2012.57 0.778901 Any idea or suggestion on what might be happening? Thanks again in advance for any help with that issue. Best Regards, Assis. 2015-08-20 11:01 GMT-03:00 alexios <alexios at 4dscape.com>:
Hi, The answer is yes and yes. Add variable(s) lagged. Best, Alexios On 20/08/2015 14:57, Assis Duraes wrote:
Hi,
first of all I would like to thanks for the rugarch package. it is really
useful and a very nice package.
I am investigating the effect of external variables on conditional
variance
models forecasts. more specifically, I am would like to check if the
addition of implied volatility and realized variance as external
regressors
on a GJR (1,1) model somehow enhance the daily volatility forecasts of it.
Looking for a tool to help modelling it I found the rugarch package, and
started looking into it. In fact, at this point, I believe I have a very
basic question. but did not find an answer on previous posts or in the
package documentation.
Should I inform the external regressors matrix in model spec already
lagged
or not? I imagine, yes, since I did not find in any place where specify
the
lags for those regressors, but would like to confirm. In case affirmative,
If I want to use a same variable with different lags I need to inform it
multiple times, obviously with different lags, in external.regressors
matrix, correct?
My apologies in advance if it is explained somewhere, but as I explained,
i
search without much success..
Thanks in advance for any help with that,
Assis.
[[alternative HTML version deleted]]
_______________________________________________ R-SIG-Finance at r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-sig-finance -- Subscriber-posting only. If you want to post, subscribe first. -- Also note that this is not the r-help list where general R questions should go.
-------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: <https://stat.ethz.ch/pipermail/r-sig-finance/attachments/20150820/9b72d69b/attachment.html> -------------- next part -------------- Date r lag_extreg 02-Jan-09 0.138163314 0.891127064 05-Jan-09 -3.535023066 1.870274188 06-Jan-09 -2.750700196 3.583100836 07-Jan-09 4.100392146 12.22858343 08-Jan-09 1.192369028 4.608871622 09-Jan-09 -1.829426571 6.547163751 12-Jan-09 2.731740518 6.090715266 13-Jan-09 0.051808999 3.492098049 14-Jan-09 2.291398015 5.32220453 15-Jan-09 -0.685745999 4.945541386 16-Jan-09 -1.020351671 3.800733908 19-Jan-09 0.98636552 2.318998273 20-Jan-09 0.896753186 1.411689395 21-Jan-09 -1.58746967 6.840925463 22-Jan-09 -0.721373732 1.160404717 23-Jan-09 0.395682422 1.840062275 26-Jan-09 -0.300920182 2.177548385 27-Jan-09 0.844574269 1.477195152 28-Jan-09 -3.06475949 1.397076051 29-Jan-09 0.955058517 2.482112626 30-Jan-09 1.278041873 2.568164406 02-Feb-09 -0.357936428 3.894530914 03-Feb-09 -0.411264893 2.726199461 04-Feb-09 0.099724681 1.324063693 05-Feb-09 -1.098098097 4.080999816 06-Feb-09 -1.714655999 1.360838912 09-Feb-09 0.68408227 1.927188295 10-Feb-09 2.206647918 1.431861352 11-Feb-09 -1.751710184 2.908787946 12-Feb-09 1.656397812 2.851444828 13-Feb-09 -2.328490897 2.544408025 16-Feb-09 0.883397971 2.114957664 17-Feb-09 2.835409091 0.420505528 18-Feb-09 0.664624123 2.000253048 19-Feb-09 0.795131917 2.045781673 20-Feb-09 0.407794902 2.213205729 25-Feb-09 -0.605985947 1.761959293 26-Feb-09 -0.57146641 15.95704868 27-Feb-09 1.307428687 1.078583361 02-Mar-09 2.511561709 2.100746576 03-Mar-09 -1.241690158 2.976018177 04-Mar-09 -2.005833828 2.53519926 05-Mar-09 1.003767274 1.669571252 06-Mar-09 -0.733986728 2.94231352 09-Mar-09 0.449420081 2.418813363 10-Mar-09 -2.237571105 1.444436926 11-Mar-09 0.29099644 1.108398503 12-Mar-09 -1.91985879 0.945832651 13-Mar-09 0.412963268 1.309161738 16-Mar-09 -0.915158695 1.41050858 17-Mar-09 -0.074452015 2.223559703 18-Mar-09 -1.456336419 0.783295028 19-Mar-09 0.306265358 2.599216014 20-Mar-09 0.600920861 2.367254608 23-Mar-09 -1.111885472 1.075024953 24-Mar-09 0.191362066 1.702283445 25-Mar-09 -0.508135704 0.944766224 26-Mar-09 0.490350022 1.397093033 27-Mar-09 1.863531097 1.544092219 30-Mar-09 1.726530847 1.940811503 31-Mar-09 -0.352400554 2.099328709 01-Apr-09 -2.13209138 1.800637715 02-Apr-09 -1.891288338 1.317965107 03-Apr-09 -0.968279762 2.050233381 06-Apr-09 0.58659134 1.327849068 07-Apr-09 -0.319942593 0.851663196 08-Apr-09 -0.561239818 1.176631696 09-Apr-09 -1.47229581 0.910995568 13-Apr-09 0.092081038 0.667451881 14-Apr-09 1.625012936 0.716143084 15-Apr-09 -1.142973669 0.931739827 16-Apr-09 -0.431430814 0.964987248 17-Apr-09 0.965837275 1.095237611 20-Apr-09 2.363431262 0.963487902 22-Apr-09 -1.664349927 1.675020317 23-Apr-09 -0.235507355 1.064367068 24-Apr-09 -0.984241974 1.139316005 27-Apr-09 1.80610255 2.216761089 28-Apr-09 -1.030657347 1.832345521 29-Apr-09 -0.96795569 2.512465818 30-Apr-09 0.494280183 1.131696016 04-May-09 -3.54076852 1.459229831 05-May-09 1.030524613 2.685220578 06-May-09 -1.054177017 3.974039231 07-May-09 -0.11360948 1.251728588 08-May-09 -2.420961458 1.491902609 11-May-09 0.339098324 1.829493959 12-May-09 0.130488383 0.732377794 13-May-09 2.079176344 1.577307033 14-May-09 -1.323765819 1.720931796 15-May-09 1.385241715 1.397834124 18-May-09 -2.135822606 2.047973102 19-May-09 -1.469255328 0.97777431 20-May-09 -0.33874207 2.469151582 21-May-09 -0.118092815 1.274762495 22-May-09 -0.206998595 1.463674103 25-May-09 0.02466517 1.428561532 26-May-09 -1.026260216 0.54420821 27-May-09 1.670329405 1.518735247 28-May-09 -1.87984759 1.493216944 29-May-09 -1.626133952 2.482699446 01-Jun-09 -0.938303671 9.166328144 02-Jun-09 -1.481355639 2.271825597 03-Jun-09 2.145199164 0.976171673 04-Jun-09 -1.383715 1.927168351 05-Jun-09 1.21561777 1.557842179 08-Jun-09 0.091724426 3.445882716 09-Jun-09 -0.987902488 1.610700351 10-Jun-09 0.174744352 1.173124693 12-Jun-09 -1.104983619 1.441942612 15-Jun-09 1.248661804 1.686982134 16-Jun-09 1.18766847 0.808459179 17-Jun-09 -0.147055121 1.174125346 18-Jun-09 0.071019127 5.816623774 19-Jun-09 0.167202937 1.605362958 22-Jun-09 2.864467303 1.58821996 23-Jun-09 -2.65711901 1.637358069 24-Jun-09 -0.430347726 1.600274867 25-Jun-09 -1.446300923 1.703917868 26-Jun-09 -0.324834646 1.148972358 29-Jun-09 1.048044527 2.811548278 30-Jun-09 -0.250735708 0.987099693 01-Jul-09 -0.993752225 1.49375028 02-Jul-09 1.193368414 1.135993713 03-Jul-09 -0.117674159 0.901814644 06-Jul-09 -0.04608413 0.446046285 07-Jul-09 2.278579593 0.940350821 08-Jul-09 0.284950327 1.527387025 10-Jul-09 -0.370092946 3.020884979 13-Jul-09 -0.885763214 2.786941461 14-Jul-09 -0.898779757 0.903490485 15-Jul-09 -1.412634252 0.967392433 16-Jul-09 -0.062098946 1.037556556 17-Jul-09 -0.295497766 0.856516969 20-Jul-09 -1.364334694 0.805632622 21-Jul-09 -0.121125959 1.290197508 22-Jul-09 0.320926226 0.67237049 23-Jul-09 -0.24717991 0.523678377 24-Jul-09 -0.17391767 0.708218324 27-Jul-09 -1.183257379 0.672625611 28-Jul-09 0.394204644 0.552118148 29-Jul-09 0.667658267 0.476395268 30-Jul-09 -0.556071868 1.11963809 31-Jul-09 -0.955157871 0.472734345 03-Aug-09 -2.173468393 0.644333765 04-Aug-09 -0.477852226 1.031172103 05-Aug-09 -0.148764456 1.062404595 06-Aug-09 1.542953409 0.888224845 07-Aug-09 -1.174203164 1.108138044 10-Aug-09 1.114461139 1.431021864 11-Aug-09 0.449901835 0.870816612 12-Aug-09 -0.553176746 0.807332009 13-Aug-09 -0.824578051 0.963665745 14-Aug-09 1.345299557 1.3113212 17-Aug-09 1.732364795 1.260609385 18-Aug-09 -1.954424626 4.045874101 19-Aug-09 -0.15193448 1.364458487 20-Aug-09 0.146512222 1.340515447 21-Aug-09 -0.778425857 0.965885685 24-Aug-09 0.60475817 0.762751637 25-Aug-09 1.112743076 0.339127542 26-Aug-09 0.021484585 0.471330122 27-Aug-09 0.257455624 0.642322689 28-Aug-09 0.7684136 1.200640156 31-Aug-09 -0.042535092 0.844051983 01-Sep-09 1.755402077 1.625685193 02-Sep-09 -1.436829013 1.828916417 03-Sep-09 -1.393248576 1.878714224 04-Sep-09 -0.869218592 1.068848521 08-Sep-09 -0.79482154 0.92772783 09-Sep-09 0.229295291 1.080152582 10-Sep-09 -1.278726641 0.577361282 11-Sep-09 1.104073174 0.726602705 14-Sep-09 -0.993667422 0.96930801 15-Sep-09 -0.486699705 0.658699951 16-Sep-09 -0.055456967 0.540058871 17-Sep-09 0.155202071 0.540100869 18-Sep-09 0.149431359 0.877147238 21-Sep-09 0.908371464 0.291050502 22-Sep-09 -1.758116934 0.437379546 23-Sep-09 0.284051543 0.630971416 24-Sep-09 0.122283379 0.68255509 25-Sep-09 -0.562628563 1.023445316 28-Sep-09 -0.162133488 1.029832718 29-Sep-09 0.055937799 0.473420634 30-Sep-09 -1.192633398 0.384963688 01-Oct-09 1.103117895 1.532046002 02-Oct-09 -0.257804324 0.782554512 05-Oct-09 -1.253616282 1.270088585 06-Oct-09 -0.011365574 0.693025865 07-Oct-09 -0.632823297 0.764666337 08-Oct-09 -0.694427308 1.293342993 09-Oct-09 0.264565634 0.646776995 13-Oct-09 -1.12055698 0.487454555 14-Oct-09 -1.209656825 0.765324655 15-Oct-09 0.005879068 0.541703318 16-Oct-09 0.52770571 0.57551492 19-Oct-09 0.449281615 1.617788353 20-Oct-09 2.131171547 0.802515096 21-Oct-09 -1.157871471 2.95208147 22-Oct-09 -0.926737012 1.22172039 23-Oct-09 -0.06985273 0.714914208 26-Oct-09 0.898530726 0.511178415 27-Oct-09 0.690133864 0.822587868 28-Oct-09 1.958009263 1.187864059 29-Oct-09 -2.648143127 2.100076506 30-Oct-09 1.625679763 3.007455352 03-Nov-09 -0.947009188 2.106877969 04-Nov-09 -1.379411824 1.755919356 05-Nov-09 -0.244385086 0.81669933 06-Nov-09 0.215322922 0.510061259 09-Nov-09 -1.245958033 0.781872117 10-Nov-09 0.750604591 1.029600429 11-Nov-09 0.37902025 0.6957342 12-Nov-09 1.024877967 0.757758841 13-Nov-09 -0.774928699 0.979536585 16-Nov-09 -0.599763058 0.944411076 17-Nov-09 -0.029206461 0.411111682 18-Nov-09 0.802983484 0.726227965 19-Nov-09 0.075312114 0.795870844 23-Nov-09 -0.017374685 0.93797048 24-Nov-09 0.277633355 1.333491215 25-Nov-09 -0.532809507 0.468641114 26-Nov-09 1.42983122 0.627062621 27-Nov-09 -0.349801085 1.092791322 30-Nov-09 0.852286011 1.657184218 01-Dec-09 -2.013645302 0.493588498 02-Dec-09 -0.122117888 0.758074764 03-Dec-09 -0.484121217 0.516197976 04-Dec-09 1.231929114 0.580948387 07-Dec-09 0.121208638 1.282327935 08-Dec-09 1.624935627 0.637335388 09-Dec-09 0.011350094 0.941754206 10-Dec-09 -0.312597941 1.556356335 11-Dec-09 0.102412389 1.098777195 14-Dec-09 -0.684738767 0.960082995 15-Dec-09 0.314420725 0.753568582 16-Dec-09 0.245133093 1.154156945 17-Dec-09 1.441476586 0.42532121 18-Dec-09 -0.089837176 1.457599647 21-Dec-09 0.246858294 1.095252679 22-Dec-09 -0.207544598 0.592098336 23-Dec-09 -1.180504545 0.364770702 28-Dec-09 -1.039474777 0.738622324 29-Dec-09 -0.06317301 0.69741869 30-Dec-09 0.051689976 1.09377442 04-Jan-10 -1.247994011 1.247999874 05-Jan-10 0.614387837 0.802708398 06-Jan-10 0.0231107 0.607645845 07-Jan-10 0.891450907 0.639108673 08-Jan-10 -1.157546974 1.132716984 11-Jan-10 0.62938684 0.789364381 12-Jan-10 0.636890009 0.764722785 13-Jan-10 0.484980838 1.426324153 14-Jan-10 0.187654657 1.126467639 15-Jan-10 0.685069912 1.732173519 18-Jan-10 -0.452412693 2.048328824 19-Jan-10 0.328203101 1.509680499 20-Jan-10 1.050896181 1.452878717 21-Jan-10 0.790694024 1.096286432 22-Jan-10 1.196364574 1.18680499 26-Jan-10 0.579236592 2.101541733 27-Jan-10 1.229268451 0.860440748 28-Jan-10 0.750673766 1.390705619 29-Jan-10 1.221146048 0.982245078 01-Feb-10 -2.506075422 1.152370265 02-Feb-10 -1.000606532 1.213644396 03-Feb-10 1.23840592 0.927419976 04-Feb-10 1.308540149 1.071246707 05-Feb-10 0.12778874 2.36511966 08-Feb-10 -0.202407654 2.24620156 09-Feb-10 -1.515017696 1.191309401 10-Feb-10 0.48062736 1.165899057 11-Feb-10 -0.697394366 0.891801955 12-Feb-10 0.600375008 0.828340472 17-Feb-10 -1.30266714 1.184240026 18-Feb-10 -1.187088022 4.007677867 19-Feb-10 -0.337810096 0.574771192 22-Feb-10 0.475927849 1.025553243 23-Feb-10 0.857572184 0.462704632 24-Feb-10 -0.125975643 0.457520088 25-Feb-10 -0.043854841 0.296652631 26-Feb-10 -0.892223796 0.546707282 01-Mar-10 -0.54363034 0.661810095 02-Mar-10 -0.278505165 0.403052437 03-Mar-10 -0.072538574 0.493735899 04-Mar-10 -0.173189239 0.560858074 05-Mar-10 -0.571974867 0.629101289 08-Mar-10 0.577566301 0.554172487 09-Mar-10 -0.718256833 0.551835227 10-Mar-10 -0.389336082 0.579443518 11-Mar-10 -0.277408393 0.413792758 12-Mar-10 -0.085075013 0.399010368 15-Mar-10 0.113417274 0.462068453 16-Mar-10 0.169885085 0.251406437 17-Mar-10 -0.022634676 0.542578394 18-Mar-10 1.388169649 0.302935595 19-Mar-10 0.556577382 0.671347879 22-Mar-10 -0.66826556 0.586408135 23-Mar-10 -0.762805875 0.72897494 24-Mar-10 1.403316015 0.304972318 25-Mar-10 0.988876384 0.706105255 26-Mar-10 -0.005497375 0.732003584 29-Mar-10 -1.356046793 0.818797823 30-Mar-10 -0.256667924 0.505916201 31-Mar-10 -0.481631755 0.576220578 01-Apr-10 -0.941939901 0.44191496 05-Apr-10 -0.158802211 0.278555727 06-Apr-10 -0.495036432 0.427802546 07-Apr-10 1.595778544 0.385821721 08-Apr-10 -0.022458032 0.529649775 09-Apr-10 -0.953489692 0.618875071 12-Apr-10 -0.614126802 0.570365918 13-Apr-10 -0.211265674 0.21247632 14-Apr-10 -0.228898526 0.354227677 15-Apr-10 0.188879088 0.559395373 16-Apr-10 0.536071999 0.911305303 19-Apr-10 -0.239166448 0.827851735 20-Apr-10 -0.17689525 0.457419729 22-Apr-10 0.734063102 0.352171358 23-Apr-10 -0.414737975 0.354604207 26-Apr-10 -0.570940746 0.400548921 27-Apr-10 1.409995501 0.38734135 28-Apr-10 -1.295546276 0.831867315 29-Apr-10 -1.196723332 0.780956518 30-Apr-10 0.674918197 1.290317027 03-May-10 -0.715442701 0.715278956 04-May-10 2.165157035 0.392088176 05-May-10 1.702336118 1.046981118 06-May-10 3.287787227 1.404448686 07-May-10 -0.926057903 6.941222117 10-May-10 -3.713366513 5.546746176 11-May-10 1.089469977 12.12253461 12-May-10 -0.914580649 1.064063723 13-May-10 0.084514189 0.531297619 14-May-10 1.32593064 0.446387304 17-May-10 0.072224232 1.805674234 18-May-10 1.17599699 2.129676479 19-May-10 0.323314527 1.687094286 20-May-10 3.007178153 3.975147206 21-May-10 -1.616304922 8.243621378 24-May-10 0.913052157 3.733809295 25-May-10 -1.361883517 1.638283099 26-May-10 1.431363224 7.555799056 27-May-10 -3.059636549 2.500878899 28-May-10 0.099108036 4.164283019 31-May-10 0.208906068 1.609531702 01-Jun-10 1.46648579 6.570456974 02-Jun-10 -1.647879271 1.560035042 04-Jun-10 2.595855777 1.333501226 07-Jun-10 0.768988089 1.433291831 08-Jun-10 -1.365812185 1.086852577 09-Jun-10 -0.226757467 1.36433715 10-Jun-10 -2.495614658 0.919425471 11-Jun-10 0.342996574 1.316890054 14-Jun-10 0.022088464 0.703856053 15-Jun-10 -1.31163999 1.223233044 16-Jun-10 -0.011189437 0.576633223 17-Jun-10 -0.398038367 1.119865896 18-Jun-10 -0.456043354 0.74258605 21-Jun-10 -0.050800103 0.385714602 22-Jun-10 0.944039378 1.774433773 23-Jun-10 -0.039157554 0.836595151 24-Jun-10 -0.207230744 1.157956027 25-Jun-10 -0.190807623 0.977592469 28-Jun-10 0.005617189 0.849937239 29-Jun-10 1.84216468 0.524885517 30-Jun-10 -0.480916324 1.911145799 01-Jul-10 -0.756441674 1.064221435 02-Jul-10 -1.066467225 0.998353246 05-Jul-10 0.298633832 0.63174139 06-Jul-10 0.123699763 0.182523061 07-Jul-10 -0.687907985 0.685294773 08-Jul-10 -0.391168049 0.479480396 12-Jul-10 0.011359764 0.480472247 13-Jul-10 -0.210364805 0.406150684 14-Jul-10 0.318218248 0.349278364 15-Jul-10 0.017018863 0.356014293 16-Jul-10 1.083226389 0.819392489 19-Jul-10 0.587463574 0.551419258 20-Jul-10 -1.031746284 0.509499826 21-Jul-10 0.371308443 0.435322298 22-Jul-10 -1.282902107 0.324032118 23-Jul-10 0.889045749 0.720679156 26-Jul-10 -0.644762145 1.19676255 27-Jul-10 0.271985662 0.403129463 28-Jul-10 0.101804205 0.509824796 29-Jul-10 -0.623761591 0.440412002 30-Jul-10 -0.176492403 0.522510284 02-Aug-10 -0.165388272 1.362628183 03-Aug-10 0.307745157 0.86583011 04-Aug-10 -0.296330283 0.357410258 05-Aug-10 -0.02283105 0.31525815 06-Aug-10 0.518121124 0.245060479 09-Aug-10 -0.683802311 0.331125188 10-Aug-10 0.25697413 0.214906016 11-Aug-10 1.213098035 0.353321517 12-Aug-10 -0.287769983 0.47311397 13-Aug-10 0.129881149 0.399604222 16-Aug-10 -0.986794147 0.250244175 17-Aug-10 -0.011399259 0.196355918 18-Aug-10 -0.074126874 0.26064696 19-Aug-10 0.136806725 0.386516141 20-Aug-10 0.039866732 0.254708673 23-Aug-10 0.782716264 0.255267067 24-Aug-10 0.028244598 0.310145577 25-Aug-10 -0.396152188 0.495092096 26-Aug-10 -0.090769848 0.355264427 27-Aug-10 -0.671984305 0.210181935 30-Aug-10 0.529991268 0.231118603 31-Aug-10 -0.199129585 0.272103315 01-Sep-10 -0.565408857 0.250637813 02-Sep-10 -1.152086476 0.437139456 03-Sep-10 0.39320046 0.276849372 06-Sep-10 -0.352652483 0.562133677 08-Sep-10 -0.02316826 0.482219275 09-Sep-10 -0.348169562 0.390855932 10-Sep-10 0.110384906 0.241488525 13-Sep-10 -0.675835712 0.155416995 14-Sep-10 -0.040929689 0.147297015 15-Sep-10 0.798023749 0.295409266 16-Sep-10 -0.686967829 0.679337086 17-Sep-10 0.553437083 0.241602008 20-Sep-10 0.683189318 0.2067519 21-Sep-10 -1.29506151 0.473906088 22-Sep-10 0.43743326 0.224303948 23-Sep-10 0.273152758 0.580150365 24-Sep-10 -0.70474097 0.254903446 27-Sep-10 -0.017536168 0.252715915 28-Sep-10 -0.157964052 0.222463504 29-Sep-10 -0.410702291 0.184445198 30-Sep-10 -0.802790452 0.227391272 01-Oct-10 0.142138016 0.698484755 04-Oct-10 0.484119496 0.574950848 05-Oct-10 -2.064873578 0.531089396 06-Oct-10 0.933579492 0.552048037 07-Oct-10 0.136908858 0.903088023 08-Oct-10 -0.89627751 0.661442204 11-Oct-10 0.227817844 0.561971993 13-Oct-10 -1.017192556 0.233191396 14-Oct-10 0.43462582 0.32669685 15-Oct-10 0.294710465 0.565758329 18-Oct-10 0.533079038 0.540907044 19-Oct-10 0.518367413 0.770176257 20-Oct-10 -0.309505634 1.765631874 21-Oct-10 1.149846713 0.337621031 22-Oct-10 0.517252667 0.638838151 25-Oct-10 -0.593892317 0.528603116 26-Oct-10 0.470699857 0.707220181 27-Oct-10 1.039425417 0.489858843 28-Oct-10 -1.004212082 0.536050259 29-Oct-10 -0.29970933 0.425636184 01-Nov-10 0.229270257 0.439215692 03-Nov-10 -0.778122294 0.351650626 04-Nov-10 -1.13076251 0.665568237 05-Nov-10 0.543171419 0.402785623 08-Nov-10 1.207043825 0.371423427 09-Nov-10 0.058795862 0.596586853 10-Nov-10 0.387188094 0.287417177 11-Nov-10 0.455661496 0.546037976 12-Nov-10 0.378138267 0.315336725 16-Nov-10 1.120168766 0.582155588 17-Nov-10 -0.847633733 0.592744112 18-Nov-10 -0.895771462 0.455839689 19-Nov-10 0.239269467 0.418747035 22-Nov-10 0.349121732 0.283751872 23-Nov-10 0.815669926 0.704528714 24-Nov-10 -0.815669926 0.483638202 25-Nov-10 0 0.293524245 26-Nov-10 0.365270735 0.138812641 29-Nov-10 -0.545498103 0.432134128 30-Nov-10 -0.244698328 0.332130052 01-Dec-10 -0.549837604 0.339401256 02-Dec-10 -0.505704947 0.198032862 03-Dec-10 -0.549760496 0.226468658 06-Dec-10 -0.719834156 0.253304634 07-Dec-10 0.411118641 0.326741268 08-Dec-10 0.504137956 0.453023 09-Dec-10 1.176276575 0.414963262 10-Dec-10 -0.193134991 0.515202495 13-Dec-10 -0.77038812 0.490140316 14-Dec-10 0.206410594 0.261323455 15-Dec-10 0.710326154 0.30852377 16-Dec-10 -0.398570365 0.253534529 17-Dec-10 0.678960759 0.258202913 20-Dec-10 -0.450174691 0.409967353 21-Dec-10 -0.658438593 0.205878291 22-Dec-10 0.288600489 0.209654409 23-Dec-10 -0.530724208 0.222940991 27-Dec-10 -0.319791816 0.134635084 28-Dec-10 0.33161634 0.319156427 29-Dec-10 -0.753645676 0.332548118 30-Dec-10 -1.126165011 0.267403066 03-Jan-11 -0.774072564 0.730564937 04-Jan-11 0.80418851 0.399610492 05-Jan-11 0.803747129 0.692324537 06-Jan-11 0.773629186 0.379219713 07-Jan-11 -0.172060916 0.626144208 10-Jan-11 0.302392688 0.541629085 11-Jan-11 -0.320209002 0.307475847 12-Jan-11 -0.61362678 0.233212782 13-Jan-11 -0.047818291 0.200292088 14-Jan-11 0.744560726 0.198596195 17-Jan-11 -0.273354104 0.574604727 18-Jan-11 -0.363647603 0.157202463 19-Jan-11 -0.215233851 0.222775744 20-Jan-11 0.161468803 0.205027859 21-Jan-11 0.250656612 0.252380306 24-Jan-11 -0.412125415 0.224234272 26-Jan-11 -0.16772497 0.333746061 27-Jan-11 0.502333313 0.162436114 28-Jan-11 0.392927814 0.326643582 31-Jan-11 -0.955231144 0.281173107 01-Feb-11 -0.156090564 0.950056226 02-Feb-11 0.168087445 0.188147657 03-Feb-11 0.05396816 0.165262369 04-Feb-11 0.335149036 0.184367578 07-Feb-11 0.345938553 0.312514294 08-Feb-11 -0.891127574 0.292361072 09-Feb-11 -0.318902764 0.525794993 10-Feb-11 0.492967212 0.261332254 11-Feb-11 -0.108004331 0.384449876 14-Feb-11 0.078014827 0.397275298 15-Feb-11 0.167825501 0.149761677 16-Feb-11 -0.035938904 0.085514098 17-Feb-11 -0.49246391 0.106410294 18-Feb-11 0.066203246 0.125894073 21-Feb-11 0.366333773 0.270932341 22-Feb-11 0.251451967 0.088270412 23-Feb-11 0.095625157 0.178646014 24-Feb-11 -0.593153532 0.162867666 28-Feb-11 0.012017786 0.151255717 01-Mar-11 -0.024037017 0.222547151 02-Mar-11 -0.379347136 0.134330032 03-Mar-11 -0.501981761 0.083163287 04-Mar-11 0.32083323 0.144711521 09-Mar-11 -0.036269117 0.51430159 10-Mar-11 0.494542954 0.159794445 11-Mar-11 0.162303543 0.170541347 14-Mar-11 -0.306794839 0.283392388 15-Mar-11 0.33081742 0.145079144 16-Mar-11 0.616602271 0.549879706 17-Mar-11 0.143129795 0.371900782 18-Mar-11 -0.747722939 0.49260492 21-Mar-11 0.030016509 0.305674811 22-Mar-11 -0.372843056 0.167225741 23-Mar-11 0.036142401 0.081413632 24-Mar-11 -0.060244595 0.114722196 25-Mar-11 0.156560519 0.115562946 28-Mar-11 0.054136968 0.139899111 29-Mar-11 -1.003272044 0.139207721 30-Mar-11 -1.06867983 0.164978371 31-Mar-11 0.184015264 0.346371122 01-Apr-11 -1.531461326 0.259911226 04-Apr-11 0.018666584 0.461450709 05-Apr-11 0.142994833 0.475872252 06-Apr-11 0.297766969 0.162108248 07-Apr-11 -1.755911018 0.48657323 08-Apr-11 -1.102952358 0.814310717 11-Apr-11 0.913653967 0.516218658 12-Apr-11 0.717435425 0.263104822 13-Apr-11 -0.515529873 0.51066412 14-Apr-11 -0.524537494 0.500039059 15-Apr-11 -0.126807017 0.326354422 18-Apr-11 0.871712929 0.334594638 19-Apr-11 -0.865368758 0.459813221 20-Apr-11 -0.636417855 0.282336033 25-Apr-11 0.15948458 0.661418903 26-Apr-11 -0.427992605 0.244954843 27-Apr-11 0.281276156 0.156826802 28-Apr-11 0.731439101 0.405440973 29-Apr-11 -0.164901414 1.255432303 02-May-11 0.878445943 0.409951423 03-May-11 -0.107022579 0.323851779 04-May-11 1.909097846 0.791461659 05-May-11 0.23455353 0.922095945 06-May-11 -0.438692044 1.06433621 09-May-11 -0.049550946 0.871117784 10-May-11 -0.646406626 0.482748704 11-May-11 1.1223184 0.211061553 12-May-11 -0.12339587 0.387859407 13-May-11 1.007379526 0.560305381 16-May-11 -0.085600739 0.832924846 17-May-11 -1.1814068 0.689592614 18-May-11 -0.372070378 0.566194714 19-May-11 0.415388551 0.279422027 20-May-11 0.401346592 0.399236 23-May-11 0.638822811 0.443274345 24-May-11 -0.558746426 0.595306678 25-May-11 0.313528059 0.295228041 26-May-11 -0.869222253 0.279886619 27-May-11 -1.283666679 0.258214646 30-May-11 -0.006271755 0.234647034 31-May-11 -0.900935374 1.266316678 01-Jun-11 0.888390684 0.793664159 02-Jun-11 -1.211677073 0.292077177 03-Jun-11 0.082505637 0.440752317 06-Jun-11 0.506234075 0.598057482 07-Jun-11 -0.284441265 0.346514445 08-Jun-11 0.107550702 0.191430504 09-Jun-11 0.107435154 0.333541582 10-Jun-11 0.867875393 0.329615305 13-Jun-11 -0.867875393 0.323996808 14-Jun-11 0.031576621 0.268556486 15-Jun-11 1.036473992 0.175962168 16-Jun-11 0.174825219 0.351500794 17-Jun-11 -0.324919056 0.744308763 20-Jun-11 -0.081394989 0.294435117 21-Jun-11 -0.647251451 0.336824569 22-Jun-11 0.295867516 0.202983154 24-Jun-11 0.857461051 0.184753122 27-Jun-11 -0.637701442 0.273723868 28-Jun-11 -1.167095227 0.198822864 29-Jun-11 -0.521696055 0.21089449 01-Jul-11 -0.749115134 0.360572043 04-Jul-11 -0.167234875 0.298408534 05-Jul-11 0.73119433 0.202548286 07-Jul-11 -0.705447676 0.184495512 08-Jul-11 0.558355909 0.328871557 11-Jul-11 0.95542128 0.400419248 12-Jul-11 0.101374906 0.731242354 13-Jul-11 -0.228238228 0.479850958 14-Jul-11 0.228238228 0.491207658 15-Jul-11 -0.291730293 0.404604217 18-Jul-11 0 0.219624739 21-Jul-11 -1.400681657 0.213299521 22-Jul-11 -0.038652323 0.309843662 25-Jul-11 -0.776200534 0.180744691 26-Jul-11 -0.058458642 0.27205575 27-Jul-11 1.059920735 0.325528898 28-Jul-11 0.749355029 2.428240043 29-Jul-11 -1.148737163 0.469940837 01-Aug-11 1.078523647 0.550190629 02-Aug-11 0.076594119 0.425678486 03-Aug-11 -0.447628321 0.495657047 04-Aug-11 1.753427808 0.293789309 05-Aug-11 -0.745894735 0.601095398 08-Aug-11 3.135405475 1.317150691 09-Aug-11 -2.32026084 1.549554148 10-Aug-11 2.240292823 3.804765346 11-Aug-11 0.043067648 2.676972284 12-Aug-11 -0.864896971 2.030356781 15-Aug-11 -1.424756963 0.650117492 16-Aug-11 0.075495442 0.402236315 17-Aug-11 -0.132154451 0.606114699 18-Aug-11 0.696560816 0.488268213 19-Aug-11 0.031262701 1.254047451 22-Aug-11 0.511318692 0.440581423 23-Aug-11 -0.686515834 0.475483531 24-Aug-11 1.052805239 0.469841576 25-Aug-11 -0.266824024 0.462177807 26-Aug-11 -0.379743352 0.464712742 29-Aug-11 -0.744987325 0.371938585 30-Aug-11 0.232229823 0.249897142 31-Aug-11 -0.345401794 0.615240532 01-Sep-11 1.875853465 0.409466512 02-Sep-11 1.30648652 0.930902064 05-Sep-11 0.255614527 1.327782714 06-Sep-11 0.720712928 0.778623823 08-Sep-11 0.186899039 1.06428553 09-Sep-11 0.83376304 0.493304005 12-Sep-11 1.688078703 0.749069554 13-Sep-11 0.42783948 2.042744875 14-Sep-11 0.26282759 1.413063515 15-Sep-11 -0.438430539 1.770034467 16-Sep-11 1.523285269 1.02615161 19-Sep-11 3.654072942 1.740551448 20-Sep-11 -0.675395384 2.206269919 21-Sep-11 4.923012018 2.300949296 22-Sep-11 1.58158331 5.698678868 23-Sep-11 -3.829959461 12.0351643 26-Sep-11 -0.530331196 3.676207855 27-Sep-11 -1.008245229 3.037029342 28-Sep-11 1.914117726 1.901620615 29-Sep-11 -0.027165793 1.537355642 30-Sep-11 2.097076527 1.775964811 03-Oct-11 0.625930327 2.649205664 04-Oct-11 -1.760421009 5.3759257 05-Oct-11 -1.376417091 2.243186873 06-Oct-11 -2.855913838 1.54913484 07-Oct-11 -0.540450564 1.90841139 10-Oct-11 -0.469630535 3.081608017 11-Oct-11 0.71769967 1.832264359 13-Oct-11 -1.412028337 1.648668967 14-Oct-11 -1.044845604 1.808275975 17-Oct-11 2.355465482 0.795435481 18-Oct-11 -1.122333513 1.067436752 19-Oct-11 1.116696693 2.045872543 20-Oct-11 0.388197061 0.954506779 21-Oct-11 -0.30367811 3.055124613 24-Oct-11 -1.412348708 1.149754406 25-Oct-11 0.864525917 1.089913126 26-Oct-11 -0.408580752 1.174568581 27-Oct-11 -2.808314869 1.513654793 28-Oct-11 -2.235456779 3.436084262 31-Oct-11 2.574083912 1.599087355 01-Nov-11 1.687608681 1.618490667 03-Nov-11 -0.424994897 5.553843614 04-Nov-11 0.813944652 2.620094891 07-Nov-11 -0.228610719 2.039636068 08-Nov-11 -0.873518571 1.343837529 09-Nov-11 2.642974367 0.66335706 10-Nov-11 -0.977270876 2.044501266 11-Nov-11 -1.032789985 1.068540051 14-Nov-11 1.333201151 0.235714786 16-Nov-11 0.180944352 2.022258755 17-Nov-11 0.52963838 0.647612982 18-Nov-11 0.392597251 1.409128018 21-Nov-11 1.135427125 0.608773304 22-Nov-11 0.628932891 1.25267409 23-Nov-11 2.600227917 1.209726839 24-Nov-11 1.689642237 2.922987551 25-Nov-11 -0.33248045 2.118102208 28-Nov-11 -1.975293778 1.729139731 29-Nov-11 -0.502690175 1.519211698 30-Nov-11 -2.019828375 0.974439201 01-Dec-11 -0.46555535 1.919552335 02-Dec-11 -0.523561405 1.291641288 05-Dec-11 -0.268411502 1.398079608 06-Dec-11 0.313076792 0.467330218 07-Dec-11 0.451116022 0.615763662 08-Dec-11 1.363193383 0.505116864 09-Dec-11 -1.446579996 2.040663346 12-Dec-11 2.520657328 2.120409603 13-Dec-11 1.068028924 1.12357588 14-Dec-11 0.860116957 0.789489742 15-Dec-11 -1.053457511 0.880897354 16-Dec-11 -0.479591381 0.848765292 19-Dec-11 0.860544223 0.582412366 20-Dec-11 -1.147240116 0.310158047 21-Dec-11 0.739404831 0.585757101 22-Dec-11 -0.199155003 0.499430604 23-Dec-11 0.059249685 0.365157654 26-Dec-11 0.059214601 0.263494947 27-Dec-11 0.123699158 0.114163976 28-Dec-11 0.701644506 0.136557007 29-Dec-11 -0.35824126 0.673324657 02-Jan-12 0.24075126 0.733135624 03-Jan-12 -2.198840648 0.209871609 04-Jan-12 0.103731617 0.889507512 05-Jan-12 0.576746797 0.757572261 06-Jan-12 0.724366646 0.641390351 09-Jan-12 -1.268378433 0.584384288 10-Jan-12 -1.849865567 0.403198803 11-Jan-12 0.161017219 0.760425463 12-Jan-12 -1.278597023 0.412248317 13-Jan-12 0.375782152 0.88958327 16-Jan-12 -0.011196954 1.704691352 17-Jan-12 0.067162929 0.196554282 18-Jan-12 -1.136631638 0.816574371 19-Jan-12 -0.118909445 0.818726041 20-Jan-12 -0.556787985 0.511756856 23-Jan-12 -0.011395362 0.415296694 24-Jan-12 0.199231601 0.387717206 26-Jan-12 -0.5359803 0.337552856 27-Jan-12 -0.694188267 1.423848319 30-Jan-12 0.677035118 0.556385362 31-Jan-12 -0.114429581 0.593452954 01-Feb-12 -0.718166885 0.944934618 02-Feb-12 -0.891932242 0.523270197 03-Feb-12 -0.05819367 0.458964299 06-Feb-12 0.453015062 0.663519329 07-Feb-12 -0.005794918 1.008559055 08-Feb-12 -0.290174889 0.498832226 09-Feb-12 -0.21527281 0.503855456 10-Feb-12 0.319832797 0.455381547 13-Feb-12 -0.354785611 0.629365488 14-Feb-12 0.488231135 0.492335578 15-Feb-12 0.220085806 0.256623189 16-Feb-12 -0.702490624 0.439129321 17-Feb-12 -0.145759872 0.4538214 22-Feb-12 -0.462002635 0.197506263 23-Feb-12 0.450332662 0.580089734 24-Feb-12 -0.216140517 0.549387849 27-Feb-12 -0.187309818 0.301904638 28-Feb-12 -0.646566644 0.373452654 29-Feb-12 1.265691337 0.503691834 01-Mar-12 -0.186501977 1.266036649 02-Mar-12 0.940609617 0.600310788 05-Mar-12 0.524511995 0.588798291 06-Mar-12 1.080658906 0.402150553 07-Mar-12 0.436942105 0.54052965 08-Mar-12 -0.306226847 0.667594134 09-Mar-12 1.717432905 0.868415039 12-Mar-12 0.317717165 1.00862072 13-Mar-12 -0.261904248 1.522839203 14-Mar-12 0.678421108 1.166096802 15-Mar-12 -0.338635236 1.399538043 16-Mar-12 0.083377343 1.157255455 19-Mar-12 1.154549491 0.613010036 20-Mar-12 -0.330087773 0.314115266 21-Mar-12 0.181683096 0.910584948 22-Mar-12 0.065984826 0.475021521 23-Mar-12 -0.49595076 0.785201319 26-Mar-12 0.385951849 0.297782585 27-Mar-12 0.263794393 0.275751349 28-Mar-12 0.213821732 0.359007907 29-Mar-12 -0.246758001 0.452287957 30-Mar-12 0.296036618 0.299808208 02-Apr-12 0.300620598 0.576651439 03-Apr-12 -0.421122337 0.284428735 04-Apr-12 0.09860313 0.619545926 05-Apr-12 -0.197303583 0.338427019 09-Apr-12 -0.269179167 0.167286605 10-Apr-12 0.85992588 0.204046813 11-Apr-12 0.1090156 0.500914532 12-Apr-12 -0.480560121 0.494962646 13-Apr-12 0.643861012 0.421241459 16-Apr-12 0.472070113 0.323131997 17-Apr-12 0.744259719 0.401646932 18-Apr-12 0.935910781 0.307443283 19-Apr-12 0.101088035 0.760810688 20-Apr-12 -0.431666848 0.577802455 23-Apr-12 0.452935525 0.702194675 24-Apr-12 -0.101066526 0.58821833 25-Apr-12 0.053205641 0.340912058 26-Apr-12 0.29742958 0.184093031 27-Apr-12 0.116605727 0.162239667 30-Apr-12 1.080066346 0.189240247 02-May-12 0.777767199 1.663421285 03-May-12 -0.793489233 0.630977197 04-May-12 1.022013276 0.361488125 07-May-12 -0.400260443 0.693004661 08-May-12 1.05179592 0.471283152 09-May-12 1.51917195 0.314230301 10-May-12 -0.836014453 0.85975079 11-May-12 0.663267738 0.600768302 14-May-12 1.499006038 0.544269133 15-May-12 0.285135633 1.186117273 16-May-12 -0.049965026 0.766552626 17-May-12 0.389066732 0.499924101 18-May-12 0.748918566 0.502889336 21-May-12 0.890381463 3.123328307 22-May-12 2.361819118 0.893678509 23-May-12 -2.818317641 2.301575432 24-May-12 -0.167413501 3.346173503 25-May-12 -2.08143749 1.418425155 28-May-12 -0.221640228 1.115522136 29-May-12 0.498001482 0.311018488 30-May-12 1.147488145 0.808318186 31-May-12 0.336750677 0.552115717 01-Jun-12 0.856557369 0.919496875 04-Jun-12 0.897873597 0.783930578 05-Jun-12 -1.764319228 0.450206146 06-Jun-12 0.507978307 1.291943638 08-Jun-12 -0.448663393 1.06701431 11-Jun-12 1.996054725 0.895219981 12-Jun-12 0.18872952 0.540682124 13-Jun-12 0.207674364 0.534325891 14-Jun-12 -0.828432904 0.446032722 15-Jun-12 -0.228905494 0.586341985 18-Jun-12 0.394170685 0.338092755 19-Jun-12 -1.472665378 0.39979894 20-Jun-12 -0.152909 0.439101171 21-Jun-12 1.766320354 0.498758749 22-Jun-12 0.222846716 0.574743141 25-Jun-12 -0.217996937 0.512694305 26-Jun-12 0.686291418 0.411901062 27-Jun-12 -0.038539359 0.337450248 28-Jun-12 0.115573547 0.746211025 29-Jun-12 -3.347347161 0.710928084 02-Jul-12 -1.201576487 2.347076598 03-Jul-12 1.50468984 0.560332049 04-Jul-12 0.642930009 0.997465951 05-Jul-12 -0.454568696 0.466716075 06-Jul-12 0.439778349 0.814071032 10-Jul-12 0.270809393 0.520033686 11-Jul-12 0.142495663 0.362946942 12-Jul-12 0.044181538 0.256442303 13-Jul-12 -0.019633829 0.362226566 18-Jul-12 -0.684681147 0.225477039 19-Jul-12 -0.54517655 0.435390033 20-Jul-12 0.59459099 0.255332406 23-Jul-12 0.713778905 0.235440726 24-Jul-12 0.445369634 0.779472695 25-Jul-12 -0.725351151 0.4152236 26-Jul-12 -0.577166588 0.2860855 27-Jul-12 0.014840832 0.744224434 30-Jul-12 0.959960113 0.473801662 31-Jul-12 0.771111678 0.280471335 01-Aug-12 -0.614456239 0.338901158 02-Aug-12 0.258921955 0.267631087 03-Aug-12 -1.039734722 0.508662954 06-Aug-12 0.133021328 0.289468875 07-Aug-12 -0.128091455 0.246164264 08-Aug-12 -0.360520923 0.200662811 09-Aug-12 -0.396589852 0.162489169 10-Aug-12 0.124103369 0.17378924 13-Aug-12 0.257642713 0.144921874 14-Aug-12 0.26191609 0.244748155 15-Aug-12 -0.162999221 0.087055647 16-Aug-12 -0.277214177 0.11912977 17-Aug-12 -0.089268008 0.157134073 20-Aug-12 0.079353275 0.114607537 21-Aug-12 -0.03470931 0.112389175 22-Aug-12 -0.004959456 0.578365487 23-Aug-12 0.371278365 0.077226708 24-Aug-12 0.138257972 0.071694786 27-Aug-12 0.344810942 0.176013702 28-Aug-12 0.451379434 0.171480125 29-Aug-12 0.346959568 0.200456955 30-Aug-12 -0.073201087 0.261286793 31-Aug-12 -0.862919652 0.204170389 03-Sep-12 0.103354095 0.501621541 04-Sep-12 0.46132787 0.060714781 05-Sep-12 -0.15680897 0.188499374 06-Sep-12 -0.496547319 0.156604116 10-Sep-12 -0.310980827 0.170704491 11-Sep-12 -0.277241625 0.249944471 12-Sep-12 0.44025695 0.338947601 13-Sep-12 -0.271840029 0.117286227 14-Sep-12 -0.416605274 0.268503167 17-Sep-12 0.984157692 0.289791 18-Sep-12 -0.424126493 0.302421496 19-Sep-12 0.059288539 0.160109565 20-Sep-12 -0.158180952 0.07600493 21-Sep-12 0.084064784 0.108790514 24-Sep-12 0.123496447 0.072279311 25-Sep-12 0.251460823 0.104212577 26-Sep-12 0.241005453 0.105041516 27-Sep-12 -0.295188643 0.109927201 28-Sep-12 -0.15779096 0.077440413 01-Oct-12 0.019737491 0.200237445 02-Oct-12 -0.044414835 0.093657459 03-Oct-12 -0.143248808 0.07675191 04-Oct-12 -0.202874955 0.055626577 05-Oct-12 0.577850725 0.081126084 08-Oct-12 -0.0443317 0.18107787 09-Oct-12 0.285349008 0.062272351 10-Oct-12 0.30413052 0.114001067 11-Oct-12 0.0440712 0.08858935 15-Oct-12 -0.338376607 0.260513611 16-Oct-12 -0.098294597 0.130885109 17-Oct-12 -0.127927591 0.058624631 18-Oct-12 -0.197131797 0.071472973 19-Oct-12 0.009865825 0.06519018 22-Oct-12 -0.153029772 0.056540694 23-Oct-12 0.148096981 0.084501811 24-Oct-12 -0.064148432 0.09917027 25-Oct-12 0 0.064479604 26-Oct-12 0.05428212 0.068179565 29-Oct-12 0.290647758 0.074893168 30-Oct-12 -0.108278384 0.089552429 31-Oct-12 0.004924289 0.046411365 01-Nov-12 0.029540643 0.177253717 05-Nov-12 0.186888364 0.055949912 06-Nov-12 -0.152435306 0.063957891 07-Nov-12 0.088539111 0.045023585 08-Nov-12 0.323974365 0.053367206 09-Nov-12 0.27895386 0.114481341 12-Nov-12 0.234306463 0.647647038 13-Nov-12 0.36015029 0.104571208 14-Nov-12 0.397576281 0.578621201 16-Nov-12 0.891207093 0.209612674 19-Nov-12 -0.13437637 0.494081469 21-Nov-12 0.774975176 0.560343603 22-Nov-12 0.285510544 0.280921807 23-Nov-12 -1.098912158 0.26473488 26-Nov-12 -0.004804343 0.993761435 27-Nov-12 0.115240577 0.215948203 28-Nov-12 0.464415648 0.417863775 29-Nov-12 0.248079894 0.3700799 30-Nov-12 1.761681568 0.433560934 03-Dec-12 -0.586925033 0.833146348 04-Dec-12 -0.174392616 1.01169069 05-Dec-12 -1.516296846 0.589589641 06-Dec-12 -0.504166434 0.68970124 07-Dec-12 -0.110776652 0.371025414 10-Dec-12 0.105962827 0.479989224 11-Dec-12 0.067372476 0.140771144 12-Dec-12 -0.313185348 0.1679872 13-Dec-12 0.64457388 0.161770879 14-Dec-12 0.019177294 0.121214517 17-Dec-12 0.649849382 0.208730669 18-Dec-12 -0.506136782 0.229817645 19-Dec-12 -0.826768793 0.242130964 20-Dec-12 -0.120740881 0.201241421 21-Dec-12 0.472472193 0.349564904 26-Dec-12 -1.453443541 0.531256851 27-Dec-12 -0.278558519 1.099564213 28-Dec-12 0.200444957 0.410122598 02-Jan-13 -0.087950753 0.220501382 03-Jan-13 0 0.864831444 04-Jan-13 -0.647346677 0.257836598 07-Jan-13 -0.241373482 0.211782375 08-Jan-13 0.683200416 0.344714002 09-Jan-13 -0.034294393 0.355486086 10-Jan-13 -0.5798827 0.262161325 11-Jan-13 0.241207137 0.208142037 14-Jan-13 -0.113147226 0.218545269 15-Jan-13 0.206520209 0.305238341 16-Jan-13 0.323672491 0.108284838 17-Jan-13 -0.176418746 0.216637423 18-Jan-13 0.12744475 0.219211875 21-Jan-13 -0.014696877 0.12731444 22-Jan-13 0.083253757 0.051232127 23-Jan-13 -0.33343171 0.320068611 24-Jan-13 -0.245881609 0.151257685 28-Jan-13 -1.763363709 0.18203739 29-Jan-13 -0.482243362 1.202432498 30-Jan-13 0.140894705 0.458645848 31-Jan-13 0.140696471 0.420525744 01-Feb-13 -0.175901541 0.256575292 04-Feb-13 0.371542326 0.383871901 05-Feb-13 -0.5427149 0.209346207 06-Feb-13 0.326986734 0.196201213 07-Feb-13 -1.233023859 0.106108613 08-Feb-13 0.304615152 0.500416604 13-Feb-13 -0.386002816 1.962252519 14-Feb-13 -0.351745067 0.099777438 15-Feb-13 0.539853616 0.130905926 18-Feb-13 -0.279748917 0.669818652 19-Feb-13 -0.387854531 0.511113436 20-Feb-13 0.321617553 0.102312855 21-Feb-13 0.548949228 0.171839258 22-Feb-13 -0.005069066 0.342300054 25-Feb-13 0.470327314 0.265857981 26-Feb-13 0.015135081 0.339861697 27-Feb-13 -0.480393329 0.464601994 28-Feb-13 0.288512842 0.223301625 01-Mar-13 0.060633623 0.302907915 04-Mar-13 -0.475950266 0.223878368 05-Mar-13 -0.310077768 0.175163358 06-Mar-13 0.315153008 0.361959908 07-Mar-13 -0.610875449 0.212351549 08-Mar-13 -0.727723193 0.140993414 11-Mar-13 0.651100708 0.661401814 12-Mar-13 0.397797342 0.415687551 13-Mar-13 0.375940292 0.18248523 14-Mar-13 -0.020285004 0.47712173 15-Mar-13 0.576516212 0.309679853 18-Mar-13 -0.020172475 0.344709469 19-Mar-13 0.080665495 0.566975625 20-Mar-13 0.281817911 0.393736573 21-Mar-13 0.915441225 0.641878061 22-Mar-13 0.059737158 0.679705426 25-Mar-13 0.169061748 0.444807135 26-Mar-13 0.223319613 0.318514293 27-Mar-13 -0.312787287 0.344074137 28-Mar-13 0.530663085 0.691141994 01-Apr-13 -0.044526902 0.188095332 02-Apr-13 -0.069303503 0.152024378 03-Apr-13 0.24235242 0.123246851 04-Apr-13 -0.460476639 0.249762853 05-Apr-13 -1.484915918 0.201027139 08-Apr-13 0.326871629 0.557171058 09-Apr-13 -0.533603078 0.434002765 10-Apr-13 -0.42488683 0.210650122 11-Apr-13 0.141829626 0.263692461 12-Apr-13 -0.309244626 0.426214236 15-Apr-13 1.601726597 0.88551842 16-Apr-13 -0.707035664 0.738879644 17-Apr-13 0.672052281 0.430735356 18-Apr-13 0.915520376 0.520413531 19-Apr-13 -0.392050327 0.511924559 22-Apr-13 0.496008159 0.527033399 23-Apr-13 0.074189483 0.60112561 24-Apr-13 -0.609984782 0.816982869 25-Apr-13 -0.448699526 0.221183071 26-Apr-13 -0.124996891 0.343692169 29-Apr-13 0.424353499 0.262664665 30-Apr-13 -0.299356607 0.453643541 02-May-13 0.393966349 0.292898437 03-May-13 -0.014932431 0.278234023 06-May-13 0.034838871 0.264087287 07-May-13 -0.089610202 0.171072288 08-May-13 -0.119605317 0.258209906 09-May-13 0.398129321 0.308885077 10-May-13 0.34706763 0.613833616 13-May-13 -0.615630978 0.656525178 14-May-13 0.635427078 0.351426415 15-May-13 0.103865281 0.269299484 16-May-13 0.177804166 0.408660379 17-May-13 0.428392708 0.440166978 20-May-13 0.176730532 0.281503216 21-May-13 0.078446758 0.284398263 22-May-13 0.449878509 0.275438223 23-May-13 -0.273597982 0.389462263 24-May-13 0.366256056 0.328580311 27-May-13 0.272599108 0.317143216 28-May-13 0.861573577 0.375670341 29-May-13 1.70593075 0.713283846 31-May-13 1.434744841 0.699763961 03-Jun-13 -0.797153241 1.858582362 04-Jun-13 0.047067684 0.505006187 05-Jun-13 0.1222724 0.895838719 06-Jun-13 0.09864945 3.183862228 07-Jun-13 0.098552229 0.964569176 10-Jun-13 0.710449354 1.101248979 11-Jun-13 -0.677620183 1.043135212 12-Jun-13 1.109827199 1.385288422 13-Jun-13 -1.645819831 0.615415275 14-Jun-13 1.422978514 0.978640487 17-Jun-13 0.906825868 0.710706159 18-Jun-13 0.473270348 0.765383953 19-Jun-13 1.960936149 0.939603929 20-Jun-13 1.463593124 1.214907272 21-Jun-13 -0.680047957 3.345704564 24-Jun-13 -0.689194941 1.431096379 25-Jun-13 -0.580991118 1.123677105 26-Jun-13 -1.236210807 0.944276166 27-Jun-13 0.556367725 0.601920689 28-Jun-13 1.480639156 0.800108446 01-Jul-13 -0.121057248 1.099944742 02-Jul-13 1.146387201 0.395890297 03-Jul-13 0.623413095 0.574418123 04-Jul-13 -0.894325702 0.380832237 05-Jul-13 0.168851406 0.800469737 08-Jul-13 0.496015189 0.881017172 10-Jul-13 0.039751773 0.577206392 11-Jul-13 -0.393797106 0.453353728 12-Jul-13 0.5129577 0.518694909 15-Jul-13 -2.099335004 0.321059324 16-Jul-13 1.506544062 0.490384441 17-Jul-13 -1.236650506 0.928265508 18-Jul-13 0.067359726 1.148364516 19-Jul-13 0.871572326 1.069967031 22-Jul-13 -0.624974134 0.529205807 23-Jul-13 -0.863508851 0.559434791 24-Jul-13 1.63967476 0.50904167 25-Jul-13 -0.34719166 0.721991029 26-Jul-13 0.600148504 0.83815205 29-Jul-13 0.539275497 0.505757938 30-Jul-13 0.619659633 0.299381541 31-Jul-13 -0.258823158 0.376484722 01-Aug-13 1.205044271 1.307658161 02-Aug-13 -0.731774326 0.636385363 05-Aug-13 0.809862048 1.260262492 06-Aug-13 -0.299667984 0.27237889 07-Aug-13 0.650310104 0.49697481 08-Aug-13 -1.282988873 0.329822091 09-Aug-13 -0.56184855 0.749292233 12-Aug-13 0.701818829 0.548838348 13-Aug-13 1.155981757 0.587569384 14-Aug-13 0.452655268 0.635953319 15-Aug-13 0.677300257 0.260794482 16-Aug-13 2.188881441 1.038039993 19-Aug-13 0.844905449 1.004846178 20-Aug-13 -0.803116898 1.806379472 21-Aug-13 2.508485836 1.350974473 22-Aug-13 -0.777163597 1.666276079 23-Aug-13 -3.616539279 1.664594936 26-Aug-13 1.315391056 5.283426399 27-Aug-13 -0.332498886 1.338759854 28-Aug-13 -1.136279503 1.982497702 29-Aug-13 0.607904608 2.135763065 30-Aug-13 1.095901379 1.21935608 02-Sep-13 -0.340129241 1.56874391 03-Sep-13 -0.776965314 1.285037626 04-Sep-13 0.050856078 1.106782791 05-Sep-13 -1.519837998 1.25320163 06-Sep-13 -0.777340242 1.426764255 09-Sep-13 -1.331112678 2.293494997 10-Sep-13 0.289550084 0.619338163 11-Sep-13 -0.324704103 0.817291356 12-Sep-13 -0.026373627 1.080015475 13-Sep-13 0.241498284 0.631142907 16-Sep-13 0.184024939 0.528838795 17-Sep-13 -1.246574891 1.014999617 18-Sep-13 -3.156426914 0.369420565 19-Sep-13 0.715639948 1.730682962 20-Sep-13 0.398894505 1.06833952 23-Sep-13 -0.55343999 1.572739913 24-Sep-13 0.122746816 0.472774801 25-Sep-13 1.385182434 0.503597438 26-Sep-13 0.616458666 0.659602939 27-Sep-13 0.302370278 0.62814709 30-Sep-13 -1.579698569 0.603034499 01-Oct-13 -0.022555543 1.087235163 02-Oct-13 -1.12518768 1.097529346 03-Oct-13 0.691131747 0.544088624 04-Oct-13 0.217263472 0.725239511 07-Oct-13 -0.294324286 0.444240559 08-Oct-13 0.262669414 0.477321249 09-Oct-13 -0.167485271 0.600078325 10-Oct-13 -1.226170296 0.318726789 11-Oct-13 -0.197406239 0.560546742 14-Oct-13 0.298254288 0.358986898 15-Oct-13 -0.201797904 0.974529111 16-Oct-13 0.100949855 0.417837846 17-Oct-13 -1.297130842 0.622236119 18-Oct-13 0.819012976 0.941075867 21-Oct-13 0.234747294 0.386092682 22-Oct-13 -0.128812641 0.523541973 23-Oct-13 0.834331419 0.678312132 24-Oct-13 0.582640822 0.482720862 25-Oct-13 -0.73340495 0.456198861 28-Oct-13 -0.380202469 0.718374466 29-Oct-13 0.284143179 0.260731027 30-Oct-13 0.242258146 0.197310652 31-Oct-13 2.230240061 0.358423837 01-Nov-13 0.623110437 0.679990652 04-Nov-13 -0.324423101 1.37400345 05-Nov-13 1.874159144 0.241295283 06-Nov-13 -0.026215756 0.77700495 07-Nov-13 0.770490263 0.842534564 08-Nov-13 0.311729048 0.926904902 11-Nov-13 0.796542499 2.8125796 12-Nov-13 0.01286477 0.669844328 13-Nov-13 0.085722863 0.580555393 14-Nov-13 -0.851911184 0.366198354 18-Nov-13 -2.201827625 0.587970008 19-Nov-13 0.308723893 1.006630393 21-Nov-13 1.50779685 0.691444257 22-Nov-13 -1.134194675 1.013254899 25-Nov-13 0.433384354 0.65389847 26-Nov-13 0.235602203 0.382807412 27-Nov-13 1.548072082 0.628279147 28-Nov-13 -0.555066936 0.480674518 29-Nov-13 0.790789749 2.250950786 02-Dec-13 0.737853346 0.511556403 03-Dec-13 0.652268302 0.683403627 04-Dec-13 0.886839899 0.491721147 05-Dec-13 -1.394734502 0.611839061 06-Dec-13 -1.053606692 1.056526061 09-Dec-13 -0.610780857 1.547611115 10-Dec-13 -0.480052819 0.353008926 11-Dec-13 1.531542089 0.271731188 12-Dec-13 -0.367836172 0.70353551 13-Dec-13 -0.154380579 0.663206707 16-Dec-13 -0.07298487 0.282048538 17-Dec-13 -0.382969121 0.439577514 18-Dec-13 0.511730029 0.317628023 19-Dec-13 1.083582122 0.895129821 20-Dec-13 1.290014095 0.777772712 23-Dec-13 -1.268801138 0.65724899 26-Dec-13 -0.157082543 0.35287657 27-Dec-13 -0.652190125 0.296985964 30-Dec-13 0.91103227 0.334213867 02-Jan-14 1.183794762 0.796418944 03-Jan-14 -0.474362286 1.635646041 06-Jan-14 0.138763347 0.499043485 07-Jan-14 -0.311434956 0.390975048 08-Jan-14 1.023241336 0.508659244 09-Jan-14 -0.259013388 0.488240615 10-Jan-14 -1.356095745 0.436480165 13-Jan-14 -0.04241062 1.037746711 14-Jan-14 -0.314398865 0.39543837 15-Jan-14 0.399202127 0.511340053 16-Jan-14 0.084731407 0.403076911 17-Jan-14 -0.803592836 0.774233768 20-Jan-14 0.034145717 0.524985018 21-Jan-14 0.735563171 0.261330929 22-Jan-14 0.53655677 0.462991639 23-Jan-14 1.102066508 0.374035688 24-Jan-14 -0.087552902 0.688680171 27-Jan-14 1.045609294 1.188820071 28-Jan-14 -0.049543785 0.677643115 29-Jan-14 0.650368638 0.520395502 30-Jan-14 -1.151311539 0.824192258 31-Jan-14 0.141014498 0.63028821 03-Feb-14 1.133308374 1.370424118 04-Feb-14 -1.436320041 0.614081478 05-Feb-14 -0.128954447 0.577457821 06-Feb-14 -0.856974916 0.689109918 07-Feb-14 -0.11341918 0.785145493 10-Feb-14 1.282095614 1.497901027 11-Feb-14 -0.394986273 0.584637278 12-Feb-14 1.060842039 0.619485525 13-Feb-14 -1.348708067 0.380261926 14-Feb-14 -0.19237209 0.679887528 17-Feb-14 0.025113009 0.491364979 18-Feb-14 0.263306528 0.298501927 19-Feb-14 -0.087691831 0.524861427 20-Feb-14 -0.978156872 0.587878181 21-Feb-14 -1.047485246 0.754185813 24-Feb-14 -0.187753416 0.491718028 25-Feb-14 -0.004271223 0.479586101 26-Feb-14 0.375170972 0.415327421 27-Feb-14 -1.319302953 0.442376124 28-Feb-14 1.076455125 0.451661204 05-Mar-14 -1.093703939 1.351142223 06-Mar-14 0.219699832 0.294833804 07-Mar-14 0.7288662 0.580352436 10-Mar-14 0.409260067 0.478243189 11-Mar-14 0.560011646 0.643054457 12-Mar-14 -0.347516878 0.549844596 13-Mar-14 0.360208039 0.516958019 14-Mar-14 -0.73450136 0.780048601 17-Mar-14 0.097961973 0.774529579 18-Mar-14 -0.640617181 0.251498022 19-Mar-14 0.674668429 0.47514246 20-Mar-14 -0.936364453 0.566986449 21-Mar-14 -0.120352475 0.609537329 24-Mar-14 -0.094664379 0.656547088 25-Mar-14 -0.500626828 0.378345606 26-Mar-14 -0.364093853 0.616944254 27-Mar-14 -1.929122914 1.398581868 28-Mar-14 0.101767669 1.105637528 31-Mar-14 0.472083999 0.788347437 01-Apr-14 -0.441131775 1.653068368 02-Apr-14 0.30899645 0.570528459 03-Apr-14 0.470485643 0.425845439 04-Apr-14 -1.940088312 0.378341338 07-Apr-14 -0.758752826 1.167083004 08-Apr-14 -0.782720883 0.494014377 09-Apr-14 -0.665362706 0.878199992 10-Apr-14 0.901276072 1.171718078 11-Apr-14 0.537793636 0.801721769 14-Apr-14 -0.207543839 0.69926936 15-Apr-14 0.836561504 0.433586379 16-Apr-14 0.478095681 0.47641465 17-Apr-14 -0.299100689 0.615884001 22-Apr-14 0.044698731 0.414113973 23-Apr-14 -0.708586694 0.357613905 24-Apr-14 -0.356185142 0.382360551 25-Apr-14 1.328088437 0.641028134 28-Apr-14 -0.899918768 0.988111483 29-Apr-14 0.565074604 0.541201624 30-Apr-14 -0.170083292 0.71304312 02-May-14 -0.489481634 0.574358493 05-May-14 1.02114825 1.043883165 06-May-14 -0.661661928 0.448987054 07-May-14 -0.571288749 0.3617477 08-May-14 -0.076719998 0.46801303 09-May-14 -0.099372157 0.45056602 12-May-14 0.072280451 0.308086409 13-May-14 0.022576931 0.229027329 14-May-14 -0.570498695 0.294945401 15-May-14 0.782473067 0.304378637 16-May-14 -0.21648935 0.352334262 19-May-14 -0.357329009 0.224306605 20-May-14 0.411495301 0.178402385 21-May-14 -0.388841653 0.315819703 22-May-14 0.388841653 0.3574491 23-May-14 0.328880976 0.492487491 26-May-14 0.053959262 0.384663385 27-May-14 0.591638138 0.204971401 28-May-14 -0.255050813 0.249387652 29-May-14 -0.350074412 0.222551555 30-May-14 0.774798421 0.439127168 02-Jun-14 1.558174148 0.436685702 03-Jun-14 0.171154015 0.598685238 04-Jun-14 -0.043857726 0.759313866 05-Jun-14 -0.77064036 0.478535997 06-Jun-14 -0.656408974 0.502864323 09-Jun-14 -0.804186079 0.770392956 10-Jun-14 -0.197566406 0.368265169 11-Jun-14 0.394743257 0.290169209 12-Jun-14 -0.111984603 0.290076315 13-Jun-14 -0.309729795 0.257504421 16-Jun-14 0.479896869 0.18610443 17-Jun-14 1.196393999 0.191899105 18-Jun-14 -1.528039532 0.2620141 20-Jun-14 0.107681274 0.433366389 23-Jun-14 -0.485481489 0.239193025 24-Jun-14 0.261014504 0.319679826 25-Jun-14 -0.776037102 0.156658233 26-Jun-14 -0.499478857 0.87432334 27-Jun-14 -0.136655604 0.297210335 30-Jun-14 0.930112647 0.5529108 01-Jul-14 -0.561570245 0.450764154 02-Jul-14 0.980688009 0.387990427 03-Jul-14 -0.58635322 0.408720613 04-Jul-14 0.144652407 0.885117085 07-Jul-14 0.500147482 0.15516695 08-Jul-14 -0.51369976 0.351211083 10-Jul-14 0.320245645 0.296253109 11-Jul-14 0.018011527 0.308200044 14-Jul-14 -0.397004943 0.152459563 15-Jul-14 0.311421279 0.152773724 16-Jul-14 0.198082269 0.239673848 17-Jul-14 1.54855048 0.199914845 18-Jul-14 -1.427193969 0.598991893 21-Jul-14 -0.229352741 0.63943547 22-Jul-14 -0.374388673 0.18750713 23-Jul-14 0.297820716 0.313684389 24-Jul-14 0.103577952 0.196945868 25-Jul-14 0.363922675 0.260992012 28-Jul-14 -0.332420233 0.316793865 29-Jul-14 0.399668224 0.16508886 30-Jul-14 0.643290134 0.104709617 31-Jul-14 0.793918968 0.464755111 01-Aug-14 -0.260987032 0.57554583 04-Aug-14 0.0310002 1.21178994 05-Aug-14 1.030800722 0.256273311 06-Aug-14 -0.386406031 0.574290319 07-Aug-14 0.971944081 0.550596795 08-Aug-14 -0.519822073 0.471680773 11-Aug-14 -0.342195648 0.785033156 12-Aug-14 0.065897861 0.59820073 13-Aug-14 0.201816416 0.237594149 14-Aug-14 -0.659603992 0.651510193 15-Aug-14 -0.287185122 0.286756532 18-Aug-14 -0.119535155 0.6020043 19-Aug-14 -0.466222011 0.257695441 20-Aug-14 0.669788926 0.231567379 21-Aug-14 0.295760253 0.298881023 22-Aug-14 0.387136993 0.178107898 25-Aug-14 0.481823096 0.37856633 26-Aug-14 -1.177983821 0.16350049 27-Aug-14 -0.647624691 0.223676135 28-Aug-14 -0.227217135 0.573639483 29-Aug-14 -0.272449308 0.483695585 01-Sep-14 0.446250015 0.382515737 02-Sep-14 -0.102461308 0.211977398 03-Sep-14 -0.299073987 0.285440488 04-Sep-14 0.267869261 0.26145791 05-Sep-14 -0.049055679 0.413634971 08-Sep-14 1.13987884 0.510362609 09-Sep-14 0.755682169 0.381581203 10-Sep-14 0.166185641 0.680163035 11-Sep-14 0.401204149 0.554183929 12-Sep-14 1.7814865 0.389889261 15-Sep-14 0.166599069 1.177111868 16-Sep-14 -0.479186302 0.478157226 17-Sep-14 1.117377712 0.481957856 18-Sep-14 0.296434536 1.350931746 19-Sep-14 0.139443516 0.759673959 22-Sep-14 1.24631814 0.57512056 23-Sep-14 0.586292455 1.328566074 24-Sep-14 -1.197019694 0.788282203 25-Sep-14 1.849941556 0.876197099 26-Sep-14 -0.317663585 0.892118866 29-Sep-14 1.133994649 0.824429342 30-Sep-14 -0.032689086 4.32380163 01-Oct-14 1.388009297 0.662130163 02-Oct-14 0.554663801 0.874111195 03-Oct-14 -1.473791641 0.787391159 06-Oct-14 -1.318448448 1.526016039 07-Oct-14 -1.227518109 5.229788914 08-Oct-14 -0.80436127 1.072543514 09-Oct-14 0.88360884 2.347087316 10-Oct-14 1.267727642 1.55192701 13-Oct-14 -1.442990581 1.012214047 14-Oct-14 0.250281697 1.105400203 15-Oct-14 2.359153443 0.590840347 16-Oct-14 0.612540706 2.375913577 17-Oct-14 -1.519965694 3.884472545 20-Oct-14 1.179677742 1.031965454 21-Oct-14 0.768052931 0.762204648 22-Oct-14 0.152905229 2.528040169 23-Oct-14 0.517335877 0.725263768 24-Oct-14 -1.049487909 0.862464344 27-Oct-14 1.889946144 2.395868288 28-Oct-14 -2.412754281 8.554093268 29-Oct-14 0.036563814 0.768370663 30-Oct-14 -2.438192525 1.635221425 31-Oct-14 3.081958539 2.381937176 03-Nov-14 0.703789276 1.623747427 04-Nov-14 0.01202188 1.634809502 05-Nov-14 0.487669352 1.203728281 06-Nov-14 2.446111287 0.977240925 07-Nov-14 -0.436767063 1.220448749 10-Nov-14 -0.254358469 1.179624693 11-Nov-14 0.16051682 0.631429647 12-Nov-14 0.46443639 0.361596244 13-Nov-14 0.798918347 0.602744636 14-Nov-14 0.493219249 0.910449827 17-Nov-14 0.280203619 1.433308083 18-Nov-14 -1.005459479 0.886876227 19-Nov-14 -0.44235841 0.561222311 21-Nov-14 -2.185965325 0.704141478 24-Nov-14 1.197193224 1.175436118 25-Nov-14 -0.630394901 1.057735144 26-Nov-14 -1.13682757 0.748620158 27-Nov-14 1.176343891 0.732163353 28-Nov-14 1.346042103 0.642213425 01-Dec-14 -0.183375327 0.736951136 02-Dec-14 0.335282965 0.913491879 03-Dec-14 -0.628601387 0.696645097 04-Dec-14 1.461923393 0.683792281 05-Dec-14 -0.088815097 0.772383417 08-Dec-14 0.458672199 1.205701318 09-Dec-14 -0.169348051 0.489126625 10-Dec-14 0.790396625 0.905784265 11-Dec-14 1.3551423 0.505000033 12-Dec-14 0.067842608 0.533989473 15-Dec-14 1.558939215 0.790431433 16-Dec-14 1.578834893 0.743215062 17-Dec-14 -0.858091074 2.662166089 18-Dec-14 -1.952424377 2.181552601 19-Dec-14 -0.124006554 1.474232269 22-Dec-14 0.210344517 0.869894623 23-Dec-14 1.108240974 0.54801514 26-Dec-14 -0.954518806 0.687431673 29-Dec-14 1.339704467 0.572060769 30-Dec-14 -1.775238684 0.40233409 02-Jan-15 1.367785441 1.524534489 05-Jan-15 0.437021547 1.31229359 06-Jan-15 -0.192350433 0.719442792 07-Jan-15 -0.664972638 0.507912106 08-Jan-15 -0.7632768 0.710917998 09-Jan-15 -1.117963073 0.767531782 12-Jan-15 1.537738061 1.591409581 13-Jan-15 -1.147297657 0.850816968 14-Jan-15 -1.019097724 1.026085515 15-Jan-15 0.9736879 0.902624618 16-Jan-15 -0.748441083 1.516171242 19-Jan-15 1.084740971 0.746503819 20-Jan-15 -1.436194899 0.618985242 21-Jan-15 -0.464126953 0.887146189 22-Jan-15 -1.020180422 0.873103598 23-Jan-15 0.217273307 0.986310731 26-Jan-15 0.131685987 0.936847311 27-Jan-15 -0.391693507 0.737847312 28-Jan-15 0.120386026 0.648429721 29-Jan-15 1.073162201 0.638102976 30-Jan-15 2.969597666 0.805499694 02-Feb-15 1.64504754 2.720609084 03-Feb-15 -1.191346502 1.041698985 04-Feb-15 1.714285654 1.278608098 05-Feb-15 0.134861787 1.01240798 06-Feb-15 1.320736366 1.316291187 09-Feb-15 -0.392588161 1.935698927 10-Feb-15 2.191614291 0.52372709 11-Feb-15 1.245564583 1.092460143 12-Feb-15 -1.549655903 2.045209791 13-Feb-15 0.385261588 1.183272487 18-Feb-15 0.151576602 0.864180902 19-Feb-15 0.977942914 0.582020509 20-Feb-15 0.090649194 0.664830222 23-Feb-15 0.316626628 0.518338566 24-Feb-15 -1.741612133 0.677008448 25-Feb-15 1.411044823 1.152796903 26-Feb-15 1.274476125 1.978250329 27-Feb-15 -2.251665485 1.902440027 02-Mar-15 1.88967726 1.69505695 03-Mar-15 1.242507833 1.106089289 04-Mar-15 1.63078351 0.873628573 05-Mar-15 0.775560483 2.227421767 06-Mar-15 2.010946288 1.192258874 09-Mar-15 1.888068501 2.105727569 10-Mar-15 -0.678055846 1.525451037 11-Mar-15 0.806080444 2.68549738 12-Mar-15 1.258677859 1.812518054 13-Mar-15 2.578595486 2.805730454 16-Mar-15 -0.092387294 3.662852915 17-Mar-15 -0.185031045 2.252853755 18-Mar-15 -0.899175102 1.506019623 19-Mar-15 2.497592378 3.282594738 20-Mar-15 -1.87351211 1.859667184 23-Mar-15 -3.09622256 2.977154402 24-Mar-15 0.229599259 1.932268771 25-Mar-15 1.939970942 3.364258175 26-Mar-15 -0.560769628 2.515110428 27-Mar-15 2.070711968 2.31351228 30-Mar-15 -0.611150739 1.316075247 31-Mar-15 -1.03321493 2.74894284 01-Apr-15 -0.999756818 4.442317395 02-Apr-15 -1.335940223 2.28000791 06-Apr-15 0.102416396 1.507591735 07-Apr-15 0.11828835 1.432739042 08-Apr-15 -2.602425479 0.800693154 09-Apr-15 0.27181494 1.701692168 10-Apr-15 0.577197474 1.560262413 13-Apr-15 1.481460761 1.434093827 14-Apr-15 -1.875681546 1.54968385 15-Apr-15 -1.13592817 1.206809971 16-Apr-15 -0.271110396 1.1999367 17-Apr-15 0.66982581 1.376579289 20-Apr-15 -0.273327686 1.476658231 22-Apr-15 -0.718153766 1.382617889 23-Apr-15 -1.34082089 0.732935107 24-Apr-15 -0.655186403 1.553051082 27-Apr-15 -1.169006036 0.782670511 28-Apr-15 0.693510116 1.051685187 29-Apr-15 0.813756906 1.660261716 30-Apr-15 1.780561784 2.272798394 04-May-15 2.36037839 2.378079555 05-May-15 -0.986544866 6.032666715 06-May-15 -0.705974135 1.251389989 07-May-15 -0.293705351 1.424625231 08-May-15 -1.706594315 1.002090386 11-May-15 2.902403571 1.800535706 12-May-15 -1.397612318 1.097524197 13-May-15 0.65355395 1.330180433 14-May-15 -1.501594417 1.582522481 15-May-15 0.090133704 1.023675656 18-May-15 0.28987942 1.370234083 19-May-15 1.075510475 0.655918444 20-May-15 -1.175374003 1.111335725 21-May-15 1.17866548 0.762132356 22-May-15 1.826415651 0.628552658 25-May-15 0.100137293 0.859642068 26-May-15 1.798218289 1.097618429 27-May-15 -0.438569317 0.73136278 28-May-15 0.733045726 0.750299894 29-May-15 0.501459696 1.110683092 01-Jun-15 -0.324557957 1.061975702 02-Jun-15 -1.145916963 1.880443647 03-Jun-15 0.041494439 0.775764188 05-Jun-15 0.280433581 0.808437396 08-Jun-15 -0.959270642 3.466698236 09-Jun-15 -0.496023177 0.923455366 10-Jun-15 0.678994097 0.506534011 11-Jun-15 -0.905275105 0.893225446 12-Jun-15 0.956575244 1.352275843 15-Jun-15 0.230525508 0.931646198 16-Jun-15 -1.222705796 0.816838253 17-Jun-15 -1.051185336 0.910306294 18-Jun-15 0.117708619 1.33354411 19-Jun-15 1.221190883 1.021521009 22-Jun-15 -0.566518729 0.759967223 23-Jun-15 -0.159202074 0.591226683 24-Jun-15 0.745087512 0.523500818 25-Jun-15 0.934811414 0.769115867 26-Jun-15 0.057537401 0.914280681 29-Jun-15 -0.371378688 0.880524394 30-Jun-15 -0.472616502 0.929692352 -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: sample_gjr_extregressor.R Type: application/octet-stream Size: 2907 bytes Desc: not available URL: <https://stat.ethz.ch/pipermail/r-sig-finance/attachments/20150820/9b72d69b/attachment.obj>
Likely related to the non-negativity constraints, so scaling helps. However, I suggest you try the eGARCH model instead for regressors in the variance, and search some previous posts regarding setting the bounds on the coefficients. Alexios
On 20/08/2015 18:19, Assis Duraes wrote:
Thank you very much for your prompt answer and help, Alexios.
I am running now some models and found some results that are puzzling me.
From another thread I saw one recommendation that we should "(...) pass
values in the external regressor which are close in scale to the
variance equation", what makes sense to me...
However, I noticed that when I define the external regressors with
values close to the return series, the coefficients calculated for the
external regressors are non-significant, while I have a strong
hypothesis that those should be relevant in the process. Nevertheless, I
noticed that when scaling to an annual basis the external regressor
coefficients becomes significant...
Attached follow a sample code (sample_gjr_extregressor.R) and simplified
database (data.txt) with daily returns (r) and lagged realized variance
(lag_extreg) I am using as inputs for the models.
There are three models as below:
Model1: Standard GJR
Model2: GJR with lagged daily realized variance
Model3: GJR with lagged realized variance annualized (scaled by 252)
The table below summarizes the results found.
model omega alpha1 beta1 gamma1 delta1 p-val_omega
p-val_alpha1 p-val_beta1 p-val_gamma1 p-val_delta1 LL For_01d
Model1 0.011449 0.131705 0.89924 -0.08386 NA 0.001217
0.000000 0.000000 0.000012 0.000000 -2033.96 0.800619
Model2 0.011449 0.131705 0.899244 -0.08387 1.23E-08 0.002944
0.000000 0.000000 0.000012 0.999999 -2033.96 0.800635
Model3 0.004839 0.066382 0.69109 -0.08387 0.001161 0.633308
0.037429 0.000000 0.010968 0.000451 -2012.57 0.778901
Any idea or suggestion on what might be happening?
Thanks again in advance for any help with that issue.
Best Regards,
Assis.
2015-08-20 11:01 GMT-03:00 alexios <alexios at 4dscape.com
<mailto:alexios at 4dscape.com>>:
Hi,
The answer is yes and yes. Add variable(s) lagged.
Best,
Alexios
On 20/08/2015 14:57, Assis Duraes wrote:
Hi,
first of all I would like to thanks for the rugarch package. it
is really
useful and a very nice package.
I am investigating the effect of external variables on
conditional variance
models forecasts. more specifically, I am would like to check if the
addition of implied volatility and realized variance as external
regressors
on a GJR (1,1) model somehow enhance the daily volatility
forecasts of it.
Looking for a tool to help modelling it I found the rugarch
package, and
started looking into it. In fact, at this point, I believe I
have a very
basic question. but did not find an answer on previous posts or
in the
package documentation.
Should I inform the external regressors matrix in model spec
already lagged
or not? I imagine, yes, since I did not find in any place where
specify the
lags for those regressors, but would like to confirm. In case
affirmative,
If I want to use a same variable with different lags I need to
inform it
multiple times, obviously with different lags, in
external.regressors
matrix, correct?
My apologies in advance if it is explained somewhere, but as I
explained, i
search without much success..
Thanks in advance for any help with that,
Assis.
[[alternative HTML version deleted]]
_______________________________________________
R-SIG-Finance at r-project.org <mailto:R-SIG-Finance at r-project.org>
mailing list
https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-sig-finance
-- Subscriber-posting only. If you want to post, subscribe first.
-- Also note that this is not the r-help list where general R
questions should go.