Forecasting of sky images
Hello everyone. I'm designing a system to forecast the availability of solar radiation for photovoltaic power stations. The forecasting system will use regularly-taken images of the sky, each of which is a full grid of binary values (each element indicates cloudy or clear-sky conditions for roughly a 40m x 40m area). These (PNG) images are captured every minute using a "sky camera". I'm looking to use R to predict the images (i.e. the movement of clouds) in an automated fashion for a short time period ahead (up to 30 minutes) by utilising trends in the sequence of images. Does anyone know of a way to use R to undertake the extrapolation of such images please? There are a number of predictive approaches in the meteorological literature (where such methods are included under the term "nowcasting") but it's not clear how the algorithms could be used in R without a substantial amount of programming. There is also the issue of a lack of statistical rigour in the methods. So I'm looking for modelling tools (from spatial statistics?) which will allow the statistical forecasting of images and which have been implemented in R. I've searched through the available spatial statistics packages such as "spacetime" and "geoR" but nothing immediately presents as suitable (although I've considered using localised spatial logistic regression employing the temporally-lagged values from surrounding mosaic elements as predictors). Many thanks for any suggestions Ross Bowden PhD Candidate, Murdoch University, Western Australia.