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Dear colleagues,
apologies for the long question, but I really need some help. It is not a case of academic laziness, I have done my homework but now I need some advice.

I have 10000 students nested in 50 schools, each student taking a test. The tests are randomly grouped in batches of 20 scripts (around 500 batches). Then, two random markers (out of a pool of 57 markers) mark each batch blindly. Each marker marks around 17 random batches of 20 scripts. If the two random markers disagree by more than 10% on the total score for a specific student, then the test of the student is being given to another marker randomly for a third blind marking. So, I have students nested within schools which are nested in areas. Then, scripts (the tests of the students) nested into batches. Then, batches crossed with markers. However, the actual marking lasted around 15 days. One batch may be marked by the first marker on day 1 and then marked by the second marker on the next day (or the day after etc). So the batches are also crossed by days. 

My Research question is: are there markers who are differentially severe or lenient on different days? 

I use this model:

lmer(score ~ 1+day+gender+school+(1+day|marker)+(1|candidate)+(1|batch), mg2007_sub)

I assume that this model is appropriate, because it models candidates as random effects (each candidate has an ability estimate based on the scores he/she received from the two or the three markers if his/her script was remarked by a third marker). Also, every batch is modelled as a random effect. Every marker is modelled as a random effect but I allow his/her estimate to vary by day, so I assume that this would allow me to see if a marker behaves in a different way on different days. So this should answer my research question.

Question 1: does this model make sense statistically (as i formulate it in lme4?)

So far so good, but lme4 will run for 48 hours and then fail because it reached maximum iterations. I assume that even if I allow for more iterations, it will go on for ever.

Question 2: Why is it so slow? Why it does not converge?

Then, I decided to simplify the problem. Instead of modelling day as a factor, I use 'd' which is the cardinal number of day e.g. 1, 2, 3, days that passed since we started marking. I assume that this is an interval scale. If a marker becomes (linearly) more lenient, he/she would 'like' this model. So I run

lmer(score ~ 1+day+gender+dvhool+(1+d|marker)+(1|candidate)+(1|batch), mg2007_sub)

please notice that (1+day|marker) where day is a factor with 15 levels, becomes (1+d|marker) which is numeric variable

and this gives

Error terms:
 Groups    Name        Std.Dev. Corr  
 candidate (Intercept) 16.85          
 batch     (Intercept)  3.49          
 marker    (Intercept)  4.68          
           d            0.38    -0.77 
 Residual               4.83          
---
number of obs: 18001, groups: candidate, 9402; batch, 470; marker, 59
AIC = 138232, DIC = 138388.9
deviance = 138230.4 


Question 3: How do I know that the variance of 'd' is statistically significant? MlWin gives some error estimates.

Question 4: The correlation of -0.77 is a problem?

I hope somebody can help me, this has taken me three days up to now...

Thank you 

jason



Dr. Iasonas Lamprianou


Assistant Professor (Educational Research and Evaluation)
Department of Education Sciences
European University-Cyprus
P.O. Box 22006
1516 Nicosia
Cyprus 
Tel.: +357-22-713178
Fax: +357-22-590539


Honorary Research Fellow
Department of Education
The University of Manchester
Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, UK
Tel. 0044  161 275 3485
iasonas.lamprianou at manchester.ac.uk
--- On Mon, 29/3/10, r-sig-mixed-models-request at r-project.org <r-sig-mixed-models-request at r-project.org> wrote: