Standard errors of variances; negative variance
Regarding standard errors for variance components: Will, I'm not sure if you were asking about lme4::lmer() or nlme::lme(). If you're not familiar with the latter, you might find it interesting. It is in some respects more flexible than lmer(), such as providing model components for different level-1 error structures and correlation structures, and so you might find it more comparable to SAS. If you're using nlme::lme(), the lmeInfo package provides a variance-covariance matrix for the variance component parameters (based on the inverse expected information or average information): https://jepusto.github.io/lmeInfo/ That said, I agree with the other folks who've suggested that likelihood ratio tests and profile likelihood CIs might be a better choice for inference on variance components. Regarding negative variances, Ben's post is instructive. In addition, in some specific problems related to meta-analysis, we've found that allowing for negative variance components can improve the performance of score and likelihood ratio tests involving other model parameters. My working theory here is that bounding variances at zero means that the log likelihood is no longer smooth, which seems to muck up the behavior or tests that involve the first and second derivatives of the log likelihood. James
On Tue, Jun 20, 2023 at 8:37?AM Ben Bolker <bbolker at gmail.com> wrote:
From Molenberghs and Verbeke 2011: In the first view, where the focus is entirely on the resulting marginal model (1.2), negative values for ?2 are perfectly acceptable (Nelder, 1954; Verbeke and Molenberghs, 2000, Section 5.6.2), because this merely corresponds to the occurrence of negative within-cluster correlation ? = ?2/(?2 + ?2). In such a case, the only requirement is that ?2 + ?2 > 0andVi = ?2 Jni + ?2 Ini is a positive definite, marginal covariance matrix. Further discussions on negative variance components, and their implications for inferences, can be found in Thompson (1962), Searle et al. (1996), Verbeke and Molenberghs (2003) and Molenberghs and Verbeke (2007). In the second view, when the link between marginal model (1.2) and its generating hierarchical model (1.1) is preserved, thereby including the concept of random effects bi and perhaps even requiring inferences about them, it has been considered imperative to restrict ?2 to non-negative values. Molenberghs, Geert, and Geert Verbeke. 2011. ?A Note on a Hierarchical Interpretation for Negative Variance Components.? Statistical Modelling 11 (5): 389?408. https://doi.org/10.1177/1471082X1001100501. Since lme4 deals with the hierarchical model, I don't think that negative variances are going to work. On 2023-06-20 9:21 a.m., Sorkin, John wrote:
Thierry, I have the same question that you posed, how can a variance, a measure that is squared be negative? Will, please enlighten us! John
John David Sorkin M.D., Ph.D. Professor of Medicine Chief, Biostatistics and Informatics University of Maryland School of Medicine Division of Gerontology and Geriatric Medicinet Baltimore VA Medical Center 10 North Greene Street <x-apple-data-detectors://12> GRECC <x-apple-data-detectors://12> (BT/18/GR) Baltimore, MD 21201-1524 <x-apple-data-detectors://13/0> (Phone) 410-605-711 <tel:410-605-7119>9 (Fax)410-605-7913 <tel:410-605-7913> (Please call phone number above prior to faxing)
On Jun 20, 2023, at 3:45 AM, Thierry Onkelinx via R-sig-mixed-models <r-sig-mixed-models at r-project.org> wrote: ?Dear all, A negative variance seems odd to me. Isn't a variance positive by definition? How would you interpret a random intercept with a negative variance? Best regards, ir. Thierry Onkelinx Statisticus / Statistician Vlaamse Overheid / Government of Flanders INSTITUUT VOOR NATUUR- EN BOSONDERZOEK / RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR NATURE
AND
FOREST Team Biometrie & Kwaliteitszorg / Team Biometrics & Quality Assurance thierry.onkelinx at inbo.be Havenlaan 88 bus 73, 1000 Brussel
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Op di 20 jun 2023 om 01:36 schreef Ben Bolker <bbolker at gmail.com>:
Hi, Will, Googling site:
https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstat.ethz.ch%2Fpipermail%2Fr-sig-mixed-models%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cjsorkin%40som.umaryland.edu%7C2c0d1047636b43c2bfcc08db71625f82%7C717009a620de461a88940312a395cac9%7C0%7C0%7C638228439560019013%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=vw%2FnMxnvA7L9A0qYuJfHa9suA2YBTnZ%2BqxPltyR3G%2FU%3D&reserved=0 "negative
variance" claims to get you 67 results (although only 11 that Google considers worth displaying by default), You can filter by date - there are only two hits since 2020:
https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Dsite%253Ahttps%253A%252F%252Fstat.ethz.ch%252Fpipermail%252Fr-sig-mixed-models%252F%2B%2522negative%2Bvariance%2522%26client%3Dfirefox-b-d%26tbs%3Dcdr%253A1%252Ccd_min%253A01-01-2020%252Ccd_max%253A%26tbm%3D&data=05%7C01%7Cjsorkin%40som.umaryland.edu%7C2c0d1047636b43c2bfcc08db71625f82%7C717009a620de461a88940312a395cac9%7C0%7C0%7C638228439560019013%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=xbWrjRwClEMYFKVkncDFgZga6SPNcmsPvbNs4kpUQjY%3D&reserved=0
and these both look like false positives (they include "negative" and "variance" but not "negative variance" ...) The short answer is that I am not aware of any mixed effect package in R that will allow you to return negative values. You can see my answer here:
https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstat.ethz.ch%2Fpipermail%2Fr-sig-mixed-models%2F2018q1%2F026437.html&data=05%7C01%7Cjsorkin%40som.umaryland.edu%7C2c0d1047636b43c2bfcc08db71625f82%7C717009a620de461a88940312a395cac9%7C0%7C0%7C638228439560019013%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=2E5S51uIXiPEsuH11f693MEOLYFb2dh5e39t2GSLor8%3D&reserved=0 ...
As for uncertainties in variances - the merDeriv package (dating back to 2017) will give you the standard errors of variances and covariances (although again, note that there's a theoretical issue here - the standard errors are often extremely poor summaries of the uncertainty
or
RE variances, the original authors of lme4 would certainly prefer that you use profile confidence intervals to summarize the uncertainty ...) That's what I know -- perhaps someone else knows about a package that allows for negative variances ... ?? On 2023-06-19 6:13 p.m., Will Hopkins wrote:
I've just joined this list to get answers to a few questions. I would
have
searched the archive before posting, but there seems to be no way of searching except via quarterly summaries. I searched the last four
quarters
without success. I'm a SAS user, but a few years ago I tried the mixed model in R, with
the
help of an R user (Alice Sweeting). At that time, the lme package did not provide standard errors for the variances, nor did it allow negative variance. Have these limitations been addressed? As I recall, Alice
found
some code that provided standard errors, but it gave values different
from
those of the mixed model in SAS (Proc Mixed). I therefore opted to
stay
with
SAS, because allowing for negative variance for random effects other than residuals and estimating uncertainties in variances are both
fundamental
to
mixed modeling, in my view. I also became fluent with SAS coding over the years and did not want to make the effort with R coding.
Interestingly,
SAS
introduced a free cloud version called SAS Studio, evidently modeled on R Studio, to try to win back customers! Will
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